The US-funded Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) has reduced its estimate of how many Mozambicans in rural areas are in need of food aid to meet their basic needs until March 2011. It now estimates that 350,000 people need assistance until the next harvest, a large drop from its June estimate of 460,000 people.The key finding of the FEWS NET report published on Thursday is that the majority of rural households will be able to meet their basic food needs. This is despite below normal harvests in parts of the south and centre of the country, due to late rains, long dry spells and drought.The long range forecast for Mozambique carried out by the Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF) for the period October to December (the first half of the rainy season) predicts from near normal to above normal rainfall for much of the country. However, it warns that in the far north, the rainfall could vary from normal to below-normal.For the January to March period (the second, and usually much wetter, half of the rainy season) SARCOR expects the south of the country to have an increased chance of receiving near-normal to below-normal rainfall, while the rest of the country has an increased chance of receiving near-normal to above-normal rainfall. The FEWS NET report warns that the La Nina weather phenomenon could lead to flooding along the Zambezi basin. In the past La Nina has been associated with an increased number of cyclones and excessive rain in the south and centre of the country.La Nina is the opposite of the better-known El Nino phenomenon. El Nino refers to higher than usual surface water temperatures in the eastern central Pacific, whereas in a La Nina period, the surface water temperature in the Pacific drops by three degrees or more. Both events can have major impact on rainfall patterns.
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