In the wake of hipotises

There are several factors that may cause the divisive discourse Renamo find increasingly militant in the near future, to enable. Paragraphs list of such factors to social inequality and wealth accumulation without observing the consequences resulting therefrom by a Frelimo elite and the growing level of social exclusion resulting from the lack of political and social institutions inclusive. It is consensual - with the exception of the Government - that poverty levels are rising. Hanlon (2010) not only defends this position, but also emphasizes that poverty is increasing and deepening in Mozambique, thus widening the gap between the poorest half of the population and half of which are in better condition.

This idea is also supported by the report of the African Peer Review (2009), when referring to the number of people below the poverty line is growing and the gap between rich and poor widens, creating a potential exclusion and social conflict. Although it makes sense, we should not underestimate the Renamo speech on the grounds that the party was reduced, at the polls, their insignificance, coupled with institutional problems caused by its dictatorial leadership and lifetime. Although it is losing influence in the design and definition of decisions or national public policy, Renamo continues to have a large support base, both in terms of cities and the countryside. This support base that left his party at the polls can join a new strategy that may be drawn by the leadership of his party. No support at the polls can not mean that the electorate abandoned the Renamo. It may not be reviewed in the current personality of its leader. A change of discourse Dhlakama can revive the electorate who left Renamo not feel identified with the current discourse and behavior of its leadership. As I mentioned above, the current levels of poverty, social inequality and accumulation of wealth by a small group of political elite of the ruling party and social exclusion resulting from the absence of political institutions inclusive constitute a threat to political and social stability of the country. These are factors that, in the future, may make the speech Renamo, which makes no sense today, tomorrow makes sense.

In the book "Challenges for Mozambique 2012," Brito publishes an interesting article - "Poverty, PARPA and Governance" - in which he made calculations about the number of poor in the period 2003-2009 and concludes that in 2009 there were nationwide More than 2 million poor people more than in 2002. These are studies that constitute what Acemoglu and Robinson (2012) called "Critical Juncture", indispensable for the development of a nation, that irritate the Head of State, Armando Guebuza, giving the authors of such works names as "apostles of disgrace, "and most recently" professional agitators ". In last year's onslaught against the "professional agitators", Guebuza noted: "There are countries that, because of this kind of intrigue, gossip, are knocking up tribe against tribe, religion against religion, and they are there to extract resources . And then come here to say that the gap between rich and poor is increasing ... "and that" Many people talk and we hear that wealth does not reach everyone. It's true. But the problem that arises is that wealth is built ... the potential is there, but while we do nothing, we bring home, the energy, the road for us, through hard work, they will not come. " He concluded: "We speak today of natural resources everywhere and some say only enrich the few. Others do it for lack of information, but there are those who do so out of malice. " This reaction of the President demonstrates that the Government, while recognizing the phenomenon, not to assume that this is a reality. Allergy to "critical juncture" that can result from Galbraith (2007) considers "effect sicofântico bajulatório or" the leader. This is a phenomenon that has to do with the origin of the power of the leader, ie, when the leader's power stems from his personality, this seeks to be surrounded by sycophants, people who see it as a phenomenon and a mirror of the organization, hence reprimand or isolate those who try to say what he wants to hear.

Attests allergy to "critical juncture" in consequence of "sicofântico effect" to the president's public pronouncements or rulers or members of Frelimo in their interventions, from the young to the elderly. All Guebuza refer to as "a visionary leader" who "knows how to drive the destiny of his people." According Acemoglu and Robinson (2012), a corrupt elite sees no problem in plundering the state if there is an institutional counterweight. The emergence of inclusive institutions only occurs when there is a "critical juncture", which provides a redistribution of political and economic power. Brazao Mazula (2008) reinforces this idea, arguing that the development history shows us that societies develop socially and economically when they were opened to what he calls "think different."

Another problem that is threatening sociopolitical stability in Mozambique is what Fork (2011) considers "low degree of institutionalization of democracy", resulting in political and social institutions not inclusive, that is, according to Acemoglu and Robinson, an obstacle to the enrichment nations. For Acemoglu and Robinson, inclusive political institutions are the foundation is built where the rest of the institutional structure of society. What happens in Mozambique is that institutions are highly partidarizadas, cells are installed in them the dominant party. The phenomenon of politicization of the state, in the context of multiparty democracy, may lead in future to political instability, which could have a domino effect in a society increasingly weakened by poverty. This effect can be felt by popular demonstrations, similar to what happened in February 2008 and 1 and 2 September 2010. Is that the politicization of state institutions leads to the emergence of institutions and therefore not inclusive social exclusion, since only these institutions can benefit - for example, access to employment in the state, by the way, the biggest employer - who has affinities with the political party in power. This is also reflected in the distribution of wealth, to the extent that the criteria for benefit or access the area of ​​wealth is their party affiliation. If not Frelimo party, can hardly have room for progression, either as an employee of the State, whether as an entrepreneur. Otherwise, you must join one of the elite to permit access to the area riqueza.O dismantling the party cells should be a priority in negotiations between Renamo and the government, rather than the creation of a transitional government or unit nacional.O speech Renamo supporters can find even in regions rich in natural resources, by the way, where conflicts emerge between the state and the population. These are regions where populations are removed from their areas fertile regions for dry areas to make way for mega-projects. The wealth generated does not benefit the locals, but the same political elite linked to the ruling party, as advocate and Mandlate Castel-Branco (2012): "The extractive capital presents an opportunity for rapid accumulation of wealth for the political and economic elite national ". The authors say that "the primary focus of industrialization is not fighting poverty, nor the increased mesh density and economic production or transformation of the pattern of capital accumulation, but the intensification of extractive accumulation, represented by the alliance of multinational capital and national economic and political elites. " For emerging conflicts between state and population, and Selemane Fly (2011) report that this conflict will depend on the positions of the bureaucracy from the options in its resolution. They argue that "If there is an inability to agreed solutions, it is likely the loss of credibility of the state, the emergence of social instability and animosity between multinationals and populations." One or otherwise prevail if the problems raised above, the current discourse Dhlakama and Renamo, the rejected may win more supporters and be accepted as the solution to the problems that face the Mozambicans, why can not underestimate it in the context of a society mostly poor and politically and socially excluded. (L.Mabubda columnist / OPAÍS)