Nampula and puts Nyussi Daviz in second round

If presidential elections were held now in the northern Mozambicans city of Nampula, the candidate of the ruling Frelimo Party, former defence minister Filipe Nyusi would win, with just over 41 per cent of the votes, according to an opinion poll undertaken by the Lurio University, and published in Wednesday’s issue of the independent daily “O Pais”.The poll was carried out from 30 July to 1 August by the university’s Centre for Interdisciplinary Studies. The pollsters interviewed 2,121 of Nampula’s 295,582 registered voters. Of the sample, 94.96 per cent said they would definitely vote in the elections scheduled for 15 October. 2.12 per cent said they would not vote, and 2.92 per cent had not decided.41.01 per cent of those who would definitely vote opted for Nyusi. 28.16 per cent said they would vote for the leader of the opposition Mozambique Democratic Movement (MDM), Daviz Simango, but only 10.57 per cent said they supported Afonso Dhlakama, leader of the former rebel movement Renamo. 2.12 per cent named other people (though in fact the only candidates whose nominations have been accepted are Nyusi, Simango and Dhlakama).1.54 per cent said they did not know who they would vote for, and 16.57 per cent refused to answer the question.

The results were similar when the interviewees were asked which party they would vote for in the parliamentary election. 41.15 per cent chose Frelimo, 29.78 per cent the MDM, while only 9.15 per cent opted for Renamo.Frelimo should feel encouraged by this poll, which may indicate that the MDM, which won control of Nampula in last year’s municipal election, is now losing ground.In the election for mayor of Nampula, held on 1 December, MDM candidate Mahamudo Amurrane won 53.84 per cent of the vote, while his Frelimo rival, Adolfo Siueia, won 41.04 per cent. In the election for the Nampula municipal assembly, the MDM won 51 per cent and Frelimo 43.99 per cent. Renamo boycotted the municipal elections.This was a serious defeat for Frelimo since in the previous municipal elections, in 2008, it had a majority of over 70 per cent in Nampula.The turnout in the Nampula municipal election was only 25.74 per cent. The low turnout and the Renamo boycott may have helped propel the MDM to victory. In the general elections, when Renamo’s name will be on the ballot paper, the opposition vote will be split.But few conclusions can be drawn from one opinion poll held in just one city. There were also problems with the sample used in this poll – More than twice as many women were interviewed as men – 69.24 per cent of the interviewees were women, and only 30.72 per cent were men.The educational level of the sample was also skewed. 75 per cent of the sample had secondary or university education – a much higher figure than among the general public.