In
March 2021, the international press was flush with coverage of Ahl al-Sunnah wa
al Jamma’ah (ASWJ) after members of the group had undertaken a limited
offensive in northern Mozambique. Coded as Islamist militants, about 200 rebels
had captured the town of Palma, an economic hub for Total’s gas operations in
the Afungi Peninsula, the site of Africa’s second largest gas reserve. Shortly
thereafter, Total
evacuated its complex, abandoned equipment and suspended plans to
develop a US$20bn gas liquefaction plant. According to some estimates,
3,100 people have been killed and 820,000 displaced. Notwithstanding
SADC’s mixed record of
regional intervention, subsequently there were calls for their involvement,
even suggestions of committing military assets using the familiar
rhetoric of ‘responsibility to protect’. In late June SADC approved a
standby force, if needed. Still, the regional politics is fraught as SADC’s
involvement could erode
the legitimacy of the state more than that of the rebels 2000km away.
Seemingly, the preference is for targeted military assistance from the US and
EU. Indeed in December the previous year, EU parliamentarian Michael
Gahler warned “the
United States is trying to involve Mozambique in its anti-IS coalition.”
While
there is debate
whether ASWJ have a relationship with the Islamic State, the US Department
of State has nevertheless labeled the group as ISIS-Mozambique.
Such a framing is indicative of how counter-insurgency epistemologies perpetuate
the conflicts in which they are applied. While it is not impossible that
ASWJ may draw inspiration from conflicts abroad in the North Africa or Middle
East, there are nevertheless many
local drivers of the conflict, with resentment at economic
marginalization of rural populations being a significant factor,
especially in the wake of Cyclone
Kenneth in 2019 and COVID-19 pandemic that started in 2020. A
counter-insurgency approach will do little to address the foundational grievances
of economic exclusion, poverty, and inequality; but it does reiterate that
securitization of capital is an imperative.
Without
more attention to these local factors, much of the South African and
international media analysis “falls
short of levels of precision” needed to account for the various layers of
inequalities and resource conflicts that certainly predate Total’s enclave extractivism, but
which Total’s arrival amplified. These key factors underscore the findings by
Michael Watts, Ike Okonta, Dimieari Von Kemedi and their many collaborators in
their decades long study of the political ecology of oil in the
Niger delta and the rebellions spawned by the presence of
multinational companies facilitated by governments which at best were fairly
distant to ordinary people, but more typically pursued interests that were
hostile to local populations. So instead of the partial frame of
counter-terrorism advanced by SADC
and the US government, well contextualised media reporting might improve
the public understanding of the situation in Mozambique through framing it as,
amongst others, the long-standing economic neglect of rural citizenry by
central governments compounded by capitalist
penetration of the extreme periphery. Among other factors, this penetration
causes impoverishment through the destruction
of livelihoods, like fishing communities in the Cabo Delgado province
tapped for forced
resettlement to make way for Total’s construction. But this sort of
broader line of enquiry/explanation is complicated and harder to investigate
because for example reporters visiting Mozambique’s
north require the cooperation and protection of a media-hostile state
and of local power brokers, including foreign armies. Altogether the reality of
these working conditions narrows the prospect for holistic reporting,
especially for journalists stationed in the region who have to have repeated
encounters with state officials for other reporting.
One
subtext in the subsequent regional and international press reports expressed
astonishment at how Islamic fundamentalists had besieged the supposedly
well-guarded oil complex, a symbol of capitalist ambition and power. Composed
of global capital driving foreign direct investment and the local Mozambique
political class, this complex’s anticipated operations in the Afungi Peninsula
was positioned as a potent expression of the Africa Rising narrative. The
project was not supposed to be attacked, let alone be abandoned due to a
relatively minor rural rebellion so in effect the event exposed how the various
weaknesses in the Mozambican state meant it was ill-equipped to secure capital
on this occasion. Quickly questions were being asked. How and why had security
forces failed to contain the attack? What kind of local group wished to eject
businesses that could bring prosperity to their region? What is their plan,
their agenda? Capital seldom experiences ambushes and defeats
on this scale by opponents like these, in such dramatic fashion in front of the
cameras, in this corner of Africa or in fact anywhere else on the globe. The
question is now what kind of actions do states like Mozambique and others that
face similar opponents take to secure a favorable business climate and
preemptively contain threats against capital, or at least ensure they do not
attract headlines and media attention that jeopardize share prices and major
business plans.
Already
there are signs of an escalation in securitization. In Uganda, the government
spent US$126
million to purchase a 3,200 camera CCTV system from Huawei for
Kampala. Nominally, this system is in response to a violent crime wave, the
system forms part of Huawei’s
Safe City initiative, which has been rolled out in more than 200 cities
worldwide. Following cities like London which pioneered the introduction of
mass CCTV systems in mid-1990s after the 1993 Bishopsgate bombing, this
initiative has seen Chinese cities become some
of the most-surveilled urban areas in the world (there are 2.6
million cameras in a city like Chongqing, Sichuan
providing 168 cameras per 1,000 people). While citizens have a right to safety
– and
there are moral panics generated by a surveillance culture especially in
the West when Chinese companies are involved – arguably the deeper
reason for this procurement is the securitization of capital and of capitalist
class rule. After the latest attack on the minister, President Museveni
announced plans to put a tracking system in every vehicle; in this case with
the help of a Russian
company. While politicians and activists have pushed
back on these plans, these latest developments are consistent with the
evolving character of neoliberal capitalism in Uganda and
elsewhere in Africa.
As
earlier neoliberal reforms set in motion changes in the order of
Uganda, so it is probable that neoliberal securitization in the 2020s in
tandem with discourses of national development will further shift what
political actions are regarded as acceptable/unacceptable and whose views are
subsequently coded against the axes of good/bad, legitimate/illegitimate, and
right/wrong. If that is the case then the new surveillance system will prompt a
revisiting of the classic question of “who is to be protected, by whom, against
what and whom, and at what price?”, as Mbembe writes.
Returning
to Mozambique’s north, the coincidence of the state’s embrace of enclave
extractivism and retrenchment from governance in the north, has come at a high
cost to residents already pressured by decades of underdevelopment and some of
the most devastating climate change impacts on the planet. Humanitarian
development aid to parts of Cabo Delgado has
been stopped by the provincial government due to insurgent activity.
Indeed, Joseph Hanlon, whose
newsletter suggests
deliberation in the displacement of local populations by insurgents,
mercenaries, and the government, with each having something to gain. But this
mediation would take place in a climate where some African states are keen to
embrace foreign military intervention and more hi-tech militarised surveillance
systems in accordance with modernist developmental
models. While the details of each case matter considerably, there are some
general conclusions to be drawn. First, making security enclaves will reshape
the political space regardless of whether they are in urban or rural
areas. Second, any restructuring is a conflict-ridden process with
political outcomes rarely known beforehand. While these matters can still be
contested, in the interim demilitarisation does not seem to be on the agenda
because the institutionalisation of patterns around militarised
‘solutions’ and escalating foreign militarization with state
and private variants providing
further evidence of a colonial
present consistent with the long history of violent capitalist
accumulation on the continent.
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