ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL FORECAST

Mozambique’s National Meteorology Institute (INAM) has forecast above normal rains for most of the country for the second half of the rainy season (January-March).In most of the northern province of Cabo Delgado, and parts of the adjacent provinces of Niassa and Nampula, the forecast is for “normal rains with a trend to above normal”. Everywhere else in Mozambique, the forecast is for above normal rains “with a trend to normal”.The rainfall trends were discussed at a meeting in Maputo on Monday to update the weather forecast for the first quarter of 2011. The rains are expected to be “excellent”, not only in Mozambique, but throughout the southern African region.Indeed, the heavy rainfall in neighbouring countries is already leading to concerns about possible flooding in central Mozambique. INAM warns that the southern part of Tete province and the northern part of Manica province are particularly liable to flooding.Complicating matters is the decision by the management of the Cahora Bassa dam to increase the dam’s discharges from 3,200 to 4,400 cubic metres a second as from last Saturday. This is likely to lead to flooding in Caia and Marromeu districts in Sofala province later this week.INAM meteorologist Arlindo Meque said that this time of year is favourable for the formation of Indian Ocean cyclones. But it is quite impossible to predict how many will be formed, and how many might hit the Mozambican coast.