Friday, February 8, 2013
Dynamics of elections in Sofala
A few months ago, STAE published on its website1 the results of the 2009 elections up to district
level. This happened more that 2 years
after the elections and is thus
inexplicably late, given the fact that the transformation of the results
databases in STAE to a publishable format is not an extremely complex
endeavour. In previous electoral cycles
it also took unnecessarily long to
publish detailed results. It is a very welcome innovation that the STAE website
now gives access to results from all elections (general and municipal) since 1994. This simply did
not exist before. The 1994 results were,
like all subsequent election results,
published in the official gazette
(Boletim da República), but the detail never goes below the provincial level for general
elections (President and Parliament) and
aggregated results for the municipal elections. Yet, for the 1994 elections there was a hard copy publication of the
results 2 up to the level of each
polling station (mesa). This publication must still be available in some libraries (public
or private), but it is certainly hard to
get to and a printed set of results is
just not friendly for analysis. The
1999 and 2004 results were published on
a CD-Rom. For 1999 the lowest level of
detail is not the individual polling
table, but the aggregation per polling location
(typically the aggregated results of all the polling stations in one
school). The 2004 results are the most
complete in electronic format as they disaggregate up to polling station level. For 2009 this was
not continued. The results are published up to district level, which omits a lot of detail. Per district the result
sheets repeat multiple times the name of
one party (legislative) or candidate
(presidential), but it is not clear what
level of aggregation each sub-result has. If one
wants to know how many votes, or what percentage of the votes a party/candidate
obtained in a certain district one needs
to manually add up the different
imputations for each. The fact that there is no consistency in how the
results are presented over the various
electoral processes complicates analysis
of the data that identifies and explains
trends in voting behaviour. The analysis of
election results over time remains a very labour intensive, artisanal
job that on its turn is subject to mistakes. This is also due to the fact that results
are only in pdf format and can thus not
be “worked” directly for quantitative
analysis. Read HERE.
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