The taste for the greatest evils

Negotiations between the government and Renamo slowed in the last rounds, on charges around dinheiro.Reunidas in another dediálogo session (85) Monday (21), the parties again failed to register any progress in the matters under discussion, absorbing time with accusations. The Government delegation accused the delegation of the main opposition party to be demanding subsidies to take part in the dialogue, conditioned on participation in the negotiation process. In turn, Renamo refutes the allegations, demanding proof. When missing about 60 days (from 135 in the agreement) to the end of the mission of EMOCHIM (Note Military Team Cessation of Hostilities Military), which has the task of monitoring the reintegration of residual Renamo men in the ranks of the FADM and PRM and social reintegration of the remaining, the two delegations show up more and more distant from the conclusion of this dossier. The Government submitted a proposal for 300 vacancies for the reintegration of Renamo men in FADM and PRM, but the movement says that the number of vacancies is quite narrow and even affects the delivery of the lists to the adoption of a model that should guide the entire process reintegration. 

On Monday (21), the head of the government delegation, José Pacheco, admitted that there are problems of interpretation of the provisions relating to the integration of the residual forces of Renamo. This obstacle, he said, is related to the need for delivery lists with the names and patents of armed Renamo men, for their evaluation and reintegration. Among the obstacles in the negotiations, Pacheco emphasized the alleged requirement of Renamo delegation of payment for participation in the dialogue subsidies. 

In turn, the head of the delegation of Renamo, Saimone Macuiana, denied that his team has received or request subsidies and much less condition the meetings to the payment of money. On occasion, the head of the delegation Renamo demanded the Government to provide evidence of such pade ments. He admitted that the executive is paying subsidies to the team of military experts motion, pursuant to an agreement between the parties. For the head of the delegation of Renamo, if the Government fails to prove the allegations, will be showing its intention to tarnish the image of this party to the public. Saimone Macuiane reiterated the requirement of the transitional model of armed Renamo men, reframing of those in the army, but supposedly "marginalized", and the sharing of leadership positions in all units of the FADM. A source close to the observation of the dialogue SAVANA asserted that Renamo is demanding the subsidies from payment, although not specify the amounts involved. Our source said that besides the daily allowance of three thousand meticais given to military experts Renamo, the delegation of the main opposition party made a presentation supporting its inclusion in the financial package of incentives for participating in the process but never conditioned its presence at the table of dialogue to receive money. To our source, the fact that they are to be of national interest issues discussed justifies the claim of the delegation of Renamo, not including therefore the movement's refusal to publicly assume the intention to receive subsidies. At the request of Renamo, said the same source, the Government acquired five vehicles (4 Ford Ranger and 1 Prado) for the delegation of the movement to use in supervision during the process of reintegration of his men. The car should have been delivered Monday, but for unknown reasons, Renamo expressed outages to receive them, so that the delivery was delayed for another opportunity.

Academic and Director of the Civil Society Support Mechanism (MASC), João Pereira, argues that, first of all, we need minimum conditions are created for the teams that are in dialogue, so that there is balance between the parties, as the government delegation enjoys perks ex-officio. Pereira warns that those minimum conditions do not teams lose focus of the debate, as this can create a bad perception within civil sociality, according to which political elites promote negotiations for economic dividends, a fact which can sharpen the emergence of other politicians to promote instability. "The debate on subsidies can not be above the interests of society and much less override the State. Negotiations should focus on ensuring the stability of the people and inclusion of society in economic benefits, "he said. The academic said that in politics, anything goes to discredit the other. To João Pereira, the issue of subsidies may be a strategy of attrition that the government is using to give to understand the people that this is the real cause for which to fight Renamo, which can contribute to the party into disrepute. Thus, calls for Renamo for a serious stance on dialogue, fight for the creation of opportunity for the people, especially the disadvantaged, who are the majority of their electorate. "We need to show civil society it (Renamo) can be a real political alternative based on the encouraging results of the last elections," believes John Pereira.

The researcher of the Institute of Social and Economic Studies (IESE), António Francisco, finds it odd the direction in which the dialogue is to be taken at a time remaining slightly more than two months to the end of the reintegration of Renamo men and it does not seem tangible solutions. The academic says commune of the opinion that the request Renamo is fair, provided it is done within acceptable standards and not be wasteful source of public funds. António Francisco condemns the government's tactic of demonizing its counter part. According to António Francisco, this subject should be treated with respect, consideration and professionalism between the parties and not in search of role, because the people are waiting for results of the debate, in order to ensure a time for good stability. However, says there may be vested interests behind the controversy and "plan B" that the Government intends to operate as soon as appear desirable. "This is because still awaited with great expectation for the verdict of the Constitutional Council (CC) compared to the last elections and noting that guided the environment, and irregularities, the reports of the observer missions have criticized the process," considers António Francisco.

Do not throw away the offal Chicken

This summary is not available. Please click here to view the post.

STILL NO ADVANCE IN DISARMING RENAMO

After another fruitless round of dialogue between the Mozambican government and the former rebel movement Renamo on Monday, the country is no nearer to disarming and demobilising the Renamo militia.The head of the government delegation to the talks, Agriculture Minister Jose Pacheco, played down the deadlock, telling reporters that there were merely “problems of interpretation” of how to integrate the “residual forces” of Renamo into the armed forces (FADM) and police.He insisted that integration depends on Renamo delivering a list of names of all its fighters it wishes to include in the defence and security forces, with an indication of their current ranks.Renamo is refusing to hand over such a list. Instead the head of the Renamo delegation, Saimone Macuiana, revived a demand for a shareout of the top positions in the FADM and police – a demand which the government believed had been dropped months ago, and which does not feature anywhere in the agreement on cessation of hostilities, agreed between the two sides in August, and signed by President Armando Guebuza and Renamo leader Afonso Dhlakama on 5 September.Macuiana told journalists that Renamo wants a division of top responsibilities. “That means that when the commander comes from the government, his deputy should come from Renamo and vice versa”, he said. “The same is true for the police”.In two para-military police units, the riot police (FIR) and the Frontier Guard, Renamo is demanding a 50-50 shareout of the entire force. Pacheco, however, said that during the meeting (which was the 85th round in the dialogue) the two sides analysed the work undertaken by their military experts during the week. He claimed there had been “advances in seeking ways to comfort Renamo”, and that the work “is proceeding at a good pace”.The meeting also analysed a document presented by the international military observers on their rights and duties. This envisages situations of conflict and emergency which might involve the foreign observers.The observer mission, known by the acronym EMOHCM is supposed to monitor the agreement on cessation of hostilities and the subsequent steps, including the disarming of the Renamo militia. EMOHCM consists of 93 officers – 23 foreign observers, and 70 Mozambicans, half appointed by the government and half by Renamo. The mission has its headquarters in Maputo, and delegations in Sofala, Tete, Nampula and Inhambane provinces. So far, with Renamo refusing to deliver the list of members of its militia, there is little for the observers to observe.Pacheco also gave details about the allowance which the government is paying the Renamo delegation. The allowance is 3,000 meticais (just short of 100 dollars) per Renamo member per dialogue session. By way of comparison, the statutory minimum wage ranges from 2,500 meticais a month for agricultural workers, to 6,817 meticais a month for workers in financial services.According to Pacheco, the total cost of the allowance, paid since the signing of the agreement on cessation of hostilities is 90,000 meticais a month. He said that Renamo had imposed these payments, hinting they would attend no further meetings unless they received an allowance. Pacheco said Renamo wants to extend the payment to the Mozambican observers attending the dialogue sessions. The members of the government delegation receive no allowance, he added, since the meetings are regarded as part of their normal jobs. Renamo, however, denied that the allowance is being paid, and Macuiana demanded that Pacheco provide evidence.

Renamo also accused the government of violating the cessation of hostilities through the visit which Deputy Interior Minister Jose Mandra made last week to the former Renamo military headquarters at Satunjira, in the central district of Gorongosa.The FADM occupied Satunjira on 21 October 2013, and since that date military and police units have been permanently stationed there. Mandra visited the former Renamo base, including the house where Dhlakama had once lived, and guaranteed that the troops stationed here will “remain ready to defend territorial integrity”.Although not a shot was fired, Macuiana claimed this was a violation of the spirit of the agreement. He said Mandra should not have visited Satunjira without the participation of joint supervisory teams from the government and Renamo.Pacheco replied that there was no violation. This was a normal visit by a high ranking state leader, he said. The Deputy Interior Minister had the right and the duty to visit places where police units were stationed. A reading of the agreement on cessation of hostilities shows that it places no limits on which parts of the country members of the government, or of Renamo, may visit.

EU AND UNICEF DELIVER EQUIPMENT IN INHAMBANE

The United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) and the European Union on Monday delivered equipment for the Water and Sanitation Programme (AGUASANI) in the towns of Homoine, Jangamo and Morrumbene, in the southern Mozambican province of Inhambane. The material consisted of vehicles, motorcycles and computer equipment for each town, and forms part of the total budget of AGUASANI of 11 million euros (about 13.7 million US dollars). The EU is providing 10 million euros, and UNICEF one million, under an agreement which the two organisations signed in February this year. The programme, scheduled to end in 2017, is aimed at providing effective and sustainable water supply services and decent sanitation to about 50,000 people living in the three towns Speaking in Inhambane city on Monday, the permanent secretary of the Inhambane provincial government, Fernando Campine, said the three towns will have sufficient water to meet the needs of their communities. He recognised that currently the level of access to clean drinking water in the towns is low. “Recently the indicator was that each borehole should supply water for 500 inhabitants”, he said. “But the indicator has changed, and now the effort of the government and its partners is for 300 people per borehole”.He urged the administrations in the three towns to make rational use of the equipment they have now received. The deputy representative of UNICEF in Mozambique, Michael Le Pechoux, said the AGUASANI programme could help reduce chronic malnutrition among children.“Sanitation is fundamental for reducing chronic child malnutrition and for the future of the country”, he said. Furthermore, when the programme is implemented, households will have better access to water, allowing children to dedicate more of their time to school work, since they will no longer have to spend hours fetching water. The head of EU Cooperation in Mozambique, Enrico Stampelli, declared that for the programme to achieve its goals, all the stakeholders, including the provincial government, should be involved and should work together.

INDIAN NAVY VISITS NORTHERN MOZAMBIQUE

The Indian Navy’s stealth frigate “Teg” on Monday arrived in the northern Mozambican port of Nacala.According to the Indian Government news service, the goodwill visit is aimed at strengthening the friendship between the two nations. Both are members of the Indian Ocean Naval Symposium (IONS), a thirty five nation body that seeks to increase maritime co-operation among navies of the littoral states of the Indian Ocean. IONS encourages the flow of information and cooperation between naval personnel.“Teg” set sail from Mumbai at the beginning of October along with three other naval ships for a two month long deployment to east Africa and the southern Indian Ocean region.Under the command of Rear Admiral R Hari Kumar, the ships called at several points en route to Nacala.After a stopover at the South African naval base at Simon’s Town, INS Teg took part in the India – Brazil – South Africa Maritime exercise (IBSAMAR) in the Indian Ocean.

GOVERNMENT SETS UP FUND FOR DEMOBILISED SOLDIERS

The Mozambican government on Tuesday set up a “Peace and National Reconciliation Fund” to provide loans for demobilised soldiers to help guarantee their reinsertion into society.The idea for the fund had been floated by President Armando Guebuza on 5 September, at the ceremony where he and Afonso Dhlakama, leader of the former rebel movement Renamo, signed the agreement on a cessation of military hostilities. Speaking to reporters after the weekly meeting of the Council of Ministers (Cabinet) the Minister of Planning and Development, Aiuba Cuereneia, said the find would finance economic and social projects of veterans of the independence war and of demobilised soldiers both from the armed forces and from Renamo. The widows of veterans and of demobilised soldiers can also benefit from the fund.“This fund has been created to promote the social and economic reinsertion of the former soldiers as well as to ensure the continued maintenance of peace and national reconciliation”, the Minister added.The Fund has its own administrative autonomy. It will be supervised by, but not subordinate to, the Ministry of Veterans’ Affairs which must regularly submit reports on the fund’s activities to the Council of Ministers.Cuereneia said the Fund is intended to create jobs for former soldiers, and support their social and economic development projects. It will also build up the professional skills of its beneficiaries so that they will be more likely to find jobs on the labour market. Initially the fund will be financed from the state budget to the tune of at least ten million US dollars a year, but it will also identify alternative sources of finance. Cuereneia said it can accept contributions from businesses and individuals, donations granted by national and foreign institutions.It can also be financed by bank loans, by repayments of the loans it makes, and other sources which may later be identified. Cuereneia said the fund will have a General Assembly of nine members – two appointed by the government, four by the signatories to the agreement on cessation of hostilities (the government and Renamo), two representing bodies financing the fund, and one representative of Mozambican private business.An executive directorate will be responsible for the day to day management of the fund, consisting of two professionals chosen by public tender on the basis of their competence. There will also be a three member Supervisory Board, chosen by the General Assembly, which will monitor the financial management of the Fund and the legality of its activities. The government has also revoked the decree setting up the Veterans’ Social Reinsertion Fund, since this overlaps with the new fund. The Veterans’ Fund had been managed by the Ministry of Veterans’ Affairs, and now all its assets will be transferred to the Peace and National Reconciliation Fund. Those assets will be used in the initial logistics necessary to establish the new fund.The exact number of people entitled to support from the Fund is not yet clear. Cuereneia said that from the government’s side there were about 100,000 potential beneficiaries (veterans of the independence war and soldiers demobilised in the post-independence period). But the government is not yet sure how many Renamo fighters would be covered, since Renamo is still refusing to deliver a list of the names of its “residual forces”. However, it is known, from the statistics of the United Nations Operation in Mozambique (ONUMOZ), that in the 1994 demobilisation, prior to the first multi-party elections, 20,537 Renamo fighters were demobilised and returned to civilian life.Loan schemes run by the government have a poor record of repayment. Since 2006 the government has been operating a District Development Fund (FDD), which began as a transfer of seven million meticais (about 226,000 US dollars, at current exchange rates) from the state budget to each of the 128 districts. The money was to be lent to beneficiaries with viable projects that would create jobs and boost food security. Eight years later the bulk of these loans have not been repaid. This destroyed the initial hopes that the FDD would be a revolving fund, in which new loans would be financed out of the repayment of old ones.

POLICE INVESTIGATING USE OF FIREARMS AGAINST TETE RIOT

The Mozambican police are investigating the use of live ammunition against rioting workers at a tobacco processing factory in the western city of Tete last Friday, according to a report in the Beira daily paper “Diario de Mocambique”.Over 500 workers were involved in the protest at the factory owned by the company Mozambique Leaf Tobacco (MLT), claiming that the company management was swindling them out of almost half their wages.The spokesperson for the Tete provincial police command, Luis Nudia, told reporters that the private security company hired by MLT was unable to quell the riot, and so the police were called in. When a normal police unit also failed to restore order, the authorities resorted to the riot police (FIR). The FIR unit opened fire on the unarmed protesters, using live ammunition. One MLT worker was seriously injured, but after treatment at Tete provincial hospital, he is now out of danger.Nudai said the police are investigating why the FIR unit believed it necessary to resort to lethal force. He pointed out that the riot police are trained to deal with disturbances by non-lethal means, including tear gas and rubber bullets.Furthermore, if the police do use firearms to control a disturbance, they should always fire into the air, and not directly into the crowd “as seems to have been the case”.Nudia said a unit is now investigating exactly where the bullets came from that struck the MLT workers.

Interesting analysis of 8%

Without access to tenders will be extremely difficult to confirm or reject the suspicion about the huge size of the manipulated results of the vote on 15 October, starting at their own polling stations and, later, in clearings, counts and recounts the various levels of the pyramid: district, provincial and national. Anyway, though the statistics can be used to lie, the numbers themselves do not mentem.O Editorial of the last edition of the Mozambique Channel and advocates calling for a general audit of the electoral process, involving the review of bids, the order to distinguish the fake and forged edicts of the true and truly representative edicts of ballots. Still persist doubt on a fair number of valid tenders purposely destroyed and unusable. However, if there is sufficient capacity and willingness of political forces, including friends and international partners, it is still possible for the Constitutional Council (CC) try to save the honor of the convent. For the sake of stability, national unity and minimum confidence in the electoral system, let's still time to show that some of the institutions, including the CC, are effectively engaged and seeking to build a state of law. The route is simple and feasible. Just the CC determines the release of the numbers available in the submission so that they confess and dissipate much of the suspicions about the elections held on 15 October. We will see what he will do.Meanwhile, as an illustration of how have been possible to avoid a likely 2nd round in the election for the President of the Republic, then share some of the results of the analysis I began making the data available. For now, and unless the CC do something visible to be credible and to dispel doubts about the results announced by the CNE on 28 October, the data available actualemente deserve more suspicion and distrust than trust and confidence. The reasons are several, some of which date back to the number of registered voters declared himself the CNE.According to the edict of the CNE on the "Clearance General / President of the Republic," the number of registered voters was 10,964,978. Now, comparing this number with the estimated projections of INE's population in 2014 will be approximately 12,094,002. Ie, if the projections are correct INE, CNE ruled clearance over a million voters; more precisely 1,129,024 voters eligible to vote, but were not incritos in the electoral process. As for possible fraud, either through ballot box stuffing in favor of Candidate Philip Nyusi either by subtraction or destruction of votes at the expense of candidates Dhlakama and Simango, respectively, several hypotheses can be advanced. Immediately advance to a first hypothesis, leaving others for another opportunity.

Hypothesis 1: How was it possible to avoid the 2nd round?

Figure 1 illustrates the votes validated by the CNE for the president, according to documents released last October 28. According to the CNE, the votes are validated 4,830,169 out of a total 10,964,978 registered voters declared.

Figure 2, consists of a graph 2a and 2b compare the results of the CNE with a first hypothesis, how could have been avoided predictable 2nd voltal. Notice in Figure 2b, as the 2nd round was eminent. It was enough that at polling stations has distorted the count, giving 8% more votes (via illegal ballot box stuffing or exchange of results), in favor of Candidate Philip Nyusi and simultaneously subtracted 4% of the votes Dhlakama and Simango respectively. If it was done, so the CNE managed to avoid being forced to declare the second round. If I had not done, perhaps we would be singing and laughing, "I trust you" and / or "I do not trust you."

As can be seen there was no need to create such confusion, to the point of having exaggerated and exposed a huge anxiety and fear that the manipulators of the vote had 2ªa back. Some will argue against this hypothesis:

"This is pure speculation."

I answer, in anticipation: "Yeah. But who makes me do it is the CNE "As so many others, I made use of my right to vote. Unlike previous cases, I ended up going to vote, instead of keeping me on my abstention. So, I have a right to know where has my vote and everyone else who voted. The solution to avoid speculation like this and others that I can still share, is in the hands of the DC Council Constitucional.Basta release edicts, allowing citizens like me convinced that numbers do not mentemos, can judge for myself if the CNE is or is not telling the truth. Free the data and much of the suspicions, doubts and misgivings, around the figures released by STAE / CNE desaparecerão.Entretanto, let's wait, let alone by the Constituicional Council and especially of what will and with our votes! Will at least require them to show the edicts of the tables and tabulations district? Or will be happy and pleased with the overall results and agredados CNE, those results released on 28 October.

Let us wait!

(Teacher Francisco António)

DHLAKAMA CALLS FOR CARETAKER GOVERNMENT

Afonso Dhlakama, leader of the Mozambique’s main opposition party, the former rebel movement Renamo, has called for the formation of a caretaker government to run the country until the next general elections in 2019.In a lengthy interview in Friday’s issue of the independent weekly “Savana”, Dhlakama repeated his claim that all elections in Mozambique, including the ones held on 15 November, have been fraudulent.He shied away from the term “government of national unity”, and was extremely vague as to how a caretaker government might be formed. The only thing he would state with certainty was that he would not be a member of such a government. Instead he would claim the status of “leader of the opposition”.

Dhlakama declared that everyone in the current government “must go”, with the possible exception of ambassadors. He said he was willing to draw up a list of people who could be appointed minister or national directors. The ruling Frelimo Party would also make proposals, “and we shall negotiate”.

“Frelimo has to sit down seriously with Renamo and we’ll design a strategy for how we survive until 2019”, Dhlakama insisted. “I am willing to help the country”.The long and rambling interview was peppered with insults. Thus he dismissed the chairperson of the National Elections Commission (CNE), Abdul Carimo, as “the moslem”, and claimed that the election campaign of the man who won, Frelimo candidate Filipe Nyusi, was “a crime” because Nyusi spent a lot of money.Dhlakama claimed that Carimo had been “obliged” to announce results that showed a victory for Nyusi and Frelimo. He ignored the awkward fact that the results announced by the CNE, giving Nyusi 57 per cent of the vote, are broadly in line with the parallel count organised by the Electoral Observatory, the largest and most credible group of Mozambican election observers.Dhlakama also claimed that it was the presence of Renamo members inside the electoral apparatus at all levels which had allowed the opposition to detect fraud. Yet before the elections Renamo had claimed that the point of placing opposition figures at all levels of the executive body, the Electoral Administration Technical Secretariat (STAE), was not to detect fraud but to prevent it.Dhlakama claimed this time “it was easy to catch the people who committed fraud”. If that is the case, why have they not appeared in court?

For, at Renamo’s insistence, the electoral legislation was rewritten in February, and radically changed the appeals procedure. Preciously appeals against alleged fraud rose up the hierarchy of election commissions – district, provincial and national. But now any claim of illicit behaviour at a polling station must be submitted within 48 hours to the district court.Although it was Renamo which introduced this change, at the elections Renamo did not use the new appeals route. If the claims of a “mega-fraud” were true, one would have expected hundreds of appeals to the courts. Instead between them the three main parties (Renamo, Frelimo and the Mozambique Democratic Movement, MDM) only submitted 24 appeals in the entire country. Thus most of the courts in the 128 districts were faced with no electoral work at all.According to the summary presented by the Supreme Court last week, the Renamo appeals were all rejected either because they contained no evidence, or because they were submitted beyond the 48 hour deadline. Neither Dhlakama nor the “Savana” interviewer bothered to mention such awkward details.As for Filipe Nyusi, “Nobody voted for him”, declared Dhlakama. “Even in his own land (the northern province of Cabo Delgado) nobody voted for him. Its just half a dozen Makondes (Nyusi’s ethnic group) in Muidumbe, Nangade and Mueda, who don’t even amount to 30,000. They stuffed the ballot boxes. It’s all a puppet show. He knows he didn’t win the elections”.Dhlakama added he could not accept that all 14 seats in Gaza province would go to Frelimo “because no competition is permitted there”. But a few lines later in the interview he boasted of addressing a large rally in the Gaza town of Chibuto. He thought it was “trickery” for him to address a large crowd, be applauded, and then win no seats in the province.

His solution was simple, albeit entirely illegal. Either split the Gaza seats 50-50 between Frelimo and Renamo or remove Gaza completely from the incoming parliament. “One of the things I’m going to tell President Guebuza is that I will wage war with the Constitutional Council (the body that must eventually validate and proclaim election results) until they accept”, Dhlakama declared. “The solution is to annul the results from Gaza”.Dhlakama claimed that “our members” were thrown out of the Gaza districts of Chicualacuala, Mabalane, Massingir, Massangena, Chibuto and Guija. This is the first time such a sweeping claim has been made. Between them those districts had 356 polling stations, and at every one of them Renamo had the right to appoint a member of staff plus two monitors (one full and one supplementary).In addition every district elections commission contains two Renamo representatives, one of whom is the deputy chairperson. Each district branch of STAE has a Renamo assistant director, two Renamo assistant department heads, and two other staff members appointed by Renamo. Is Dhlakama claiming that all these hundreds of people were expelled from the Gaza districts? Or did Renamo never get round to appointing some of them?

Dhlakama also claimed that there was a low turnout in the opposition stronghold of Zambezia because “I believe that STAE received orders to strategically remove the names of people (from the electoral registers) because most of them vote for the opposition”.But Renamo is just as much inside STAE in Zambezia as anywhere else. Did the Renamo assistant provincial and district STAE directors in Zambezia not notice names being removed from the electoral registers? Perhaps Dhlakama is suggesting that all the STAE members his party appointed are incompetent.