Interesting analysis of 8%

Without access to tenders will be extremely difficult to confirm or reject the suspicion about the huge size of the manipulated results of the vote on 15 October, starting at their own polling stations and, later, in clearings, counts and recounts the various levels of the pyramid: district, provincial and national. Anyway, though the statistics can be used to lie, the numbers themselves do not mentem.O Editorial of the last edition of the Mozambique Channel and advocates calling for a general audit of the electoral process, involving the review of bids, the order to distinguish the fake and forged edicts of the true and truly representative edicts of ballots. Still persist doubt on a fair number of valid tenders purposely destroyed and unusable. However, if there is sufficient capacity and willingness of political forces, including friends and international partners, it is still possible for the Constitutional Council (CC) try to save the honor of the convent. For the sake of stability, national unity and minimum confidence in the electoral system, let's still time to show that some of the institutions, including the CC, are effectively engaged and seeking to build a state of law. The route is simple and feasible. Just the CC determines the release of the numbers available in the submission so that they confess and dissipate much of the suspicions about the elections held on 15 October. We will see what he will do.Meanwhile, as an illustration of how have been possible to avoid a likely 2nd round in the election for the President of the Republic, then share some of the results of the analysis I began making the data available. For now, and unless the CC do something visible to be credible and to dispel doubts about the results announced by the CNE on 28 October, the data available actualemente deserve more suspicion and distrust than trust and confidence. The reasons are several, some of which date back to the number of registered voters declared himself the CNE.According to the edict of the CNE on the "Clearance General / President of the Republic," the number of registered voters was 10,964,978. Now, comparing this number with the estimated projections of INE's population in 2014 will be approximately 12,094,002. Ie, if the projections are correct INE, CNE ruled clearance over a million voters; more precisely 1,129,024 voters eligible to vote, but were not incritos in the electoral process. As for possible fraud, either through ballot box stuffing in favor of Candidate Philip Nyusi either by subtraction or destruction of votes at the expense of candidates Dhlakama and Simango, respectively, several hypotheses can be advanced. Immediately advance to a first hypothesis, leaving others for another opportunity.

Hypothesis 1: How was it possible to avoid the 2nd round?

Figure 1 illustrates the votes validated by the CNE for the president, according to documents released last October 28. According to the CNE, the votes are validated 4,830,169 out of a total 10,964,978 registered voters declared.

Figure 2, consists of a graph 2a and 2b compare the results of the CNE with a first hypothesis, how could have been avoided predictable 2nd voltal. Notice in Figure 2b, as the 2nd round was eminent. It was enough that at polling stations has distorted the count, giving 8% more votes (via illegal ballot box stuffing or exchange of results), in favor of Candidate Philip Nyusi and simultaneously subtracted 4% of the votes Dhlakama and Simango respectively. If it was done, so the CNE managed to avoid being forced to declare the second round. If I had not done, perhaps we would be singing and laughing, "I trust you" and / or "I do not trust you."

As can be seen there was no need to create such confusion, to the point of having exaggerated and exposed a huge anxiety and fear that the manipulators of the vote had 2ªa back. Some will argue against this hypothesis:

"This is pure speculation."

I answer, in anticipation: "Yeah. But who makes me do it is the CNE "As so many others, I made use of my right to vote. Unlike previous cases, I ended up going to vote, instead of keeping me on my abstention. So, I have a right to know where has my vote and everyone else who voted. The solution to avoid speculation like this and others that I can still share, is in the hands of the DC Council Constitucional.Basta release edicts, allowing citizens like me convinced that numbers do not mentemos, can judge for myself if the CNE is or is not telling the truth. Free the data and much of the suspicions, doubts and misgivings, around the figures released by STAE / CNE desaparecerão.Entretanto, let's wait, let alone by the Constituicional Council and especially of what will and with our votes! Will at least require them to show the edicts of the tables and tabulations district? Or will be happy and pleased with the overall results and agredados CNE, those results released on 28 October.

Let us wait!

(Teacher Francisco António)