Wednesday, November 19, 2014

STILL NO ADVANCE IN DISARMING RENAMO

After another fruitless round of dialogue between the Mozambican government and the former rebel movement Renamo on Monday, the country is no nearer to disarming and demobilising the Renamo militia.The head of the government delegation to the talks, Agriculture Minister Jose Pacheco, played down the deadlock, telling reporters that there were merely “problems of interpretation” of how to integrate the “residual forces” of Renamo into the armed forces (FADM) and police.He insisted that integration depends on Renamo delivering a list of names of all its fighters it wishes to include in the defence and security forces, with an indication of their current ranks.Renamo is refusing to hand over such a list. Instead the head of the Renamo delegation, Saimone Macuiana, revived a demand for a shareout of the top positions in the FADM and police – a demand which the government believed had been dropped months ago, and which does not feature anywhere in the agreement on cessation of hostilities, agreed between the two sides in August, and signed by President Armando Guebuza and Renamo leader Afonso Dhlakama on 5 September.Macuiana told journalists that Renamo wants a division of top responsibilities. “That means that when the commander comes from the government, his deputy should come from Renamo and vice versa”, he said. “The same is true for the police”.In two para-military police units, the riot police (FIR) and the Frontier Guard, Renamo is demanding a 50-50 shareout of the entire force. Pacheco, however, said that during the meeting (which was the 85th round in the dialogue) the two sides analysed the work undertaken by their military experts during the week. He claimed there had been “advances in seeking ways to comfort Renamo”, and that the work “is proceeding at a good pace”.The meeting also analysed a document presented by the international military observers on their rights and duties. This envisages situations of conflict and emergency which might involve the foreign observers.The observer mission, known by the acronym EMOHCM is supposed to monitor the agreement on cessation of hostilities and the subsequent steps, including the disarming of the Renamo militia. EMOHCM consists of 93 officers – 23 foreign observers, and 70 Mozambicans, half appointed by the government and half by Renamo. The mission has its headquarters in Maputo, and delegations in Sofala, Tete, Nampula and Inhambane provinces. So far, with Renamo refusing to deliver the list of members of its militia, there is little for the observers to observe.Pacheco also gave details about the allowance which the government is paying the Renamo delegation. The allowance is 3,000 meticais (just short of 100 dollars) per Renamo member per dialogue session. By way of comparison, the statutory minimum wage ranges from 2,500 meticais a month for agricultural workers, to 6,817 meticais a month for workers in financial services.According to Pacheco, the total cost of the allowance, paid since the signing of the agreement on cessation of hostilities is 90,000 meticais a month. He said that Renamo had imposed these payments, hinting they would attend no further meetings unless they received an allowance. Pacheco said Renamo wants to extend the payment to the Mozambican observers attending the dialogue sessions. The members of the government delegation receive no allowance, he added, since the meetings are regarded as part of their normal jobs. Renamo, however, denied that the allowance is being paid, and Macuiana demanded that Pacheco provide evidence.
Renamo also accused the government of violating the cessation of hostilities through the visit which Deputy Interior Minister Jose Mandra made last week to the former Renamo military headquarters at Satunjira, in the central district of Gorongosa.The FADM occupied Satunjira on 21 October 2013, and since that date military and police units have been permanently stationed there. Mandra visited the former Renamo base, including the house where Dhlakama had once lived, and guaranteed that the troops stationed here will “remain ready to defend territorial integrity”.Although not a shot was fired, Macuiana claimed this was a violation of the spirit of the agreement. He said Mandra should not have visited Satunjira without the participation of joint supervisory teams from the government and Renamo.Pacheco replied that there was no violation. This was a normal visit by a high ranking state leader, he said. The Deputy Interior Minister had the right and the duty to visit places where police units were stationed. A reading of the agreement on cessation of hostilities shows that it places no limits on which parts of the country members of the government, or of Renamo, may visit.

EU AND UNICEF DELIVER EQUIPMENT IN INHAMBANE

The United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) and the European Union on Monday delivered equipment for the Water and Sanitation Programme (AGUASANI) in the towns of Homoine, Jangamo and Morrumbene, in the southern Mozambican province of Inhambane. The material consisted of vehicles, motorcycles and computer equipment for each town, and forms part of the total budget of AGUASANI of 11 million euros (about 13.7 million US dollars). The EU is providing 10 million euros, and UNICEF one million, under an agreement which the two organisations signed in February this year. The programme, scheduled to end in 2017, is aimed at providing effective and sustainable water supply services and decent sanitation to about 50,000 people living in the three towns Speaking in Inhambane city on Monday, the permanent secretary of the Inhambane provincial government, Fernando Campine, said the three towns will have sufficient water to meet the needs of their communities. He recognised that currently the level of access to clean drinking water in the towns is low. “Recently the indicator was that each borehole should supply water for 500 inhabitants”, he said. “But the indicator has changed, and now the effort of the government and its partners is for 300 people per borehole”.He urged the administrations in the three towns to make rational use of the equipment they have now received. The deputy representative of UNICEF in Mozambique, Michael Le Pechoux, said the AGUASANI programme could help reduce chronic malnutrition among children.“Sanitation is fundamental for reducing chronic child malnutrition and for the future of the country”, he said. Furthermore, when the programme is implemented, households will have better access to water, allowing children to dedicate more of their time to school work, since they will no longer have to spend hours fetching water. The head of EU Cooperation in Mozambique, Enrico Stampelli, declared that for the programme to achieve its goals, all the stakeholders, including the provincial government, should be involved and should work together.

INDIAN NAVY VISITS NORTHERN MOZAMBIQUE

The Indian Navy’s stealth frigate “Teg” on Monday arrived in the northern Mozambican port of Nacala.According to the Indian Government news service, the goodwill visit is aimed at strengthening the friendship between the two nations. Both are members of the Indian Ocean Naval Symposium (IONS), a thirty five nation body that seeks to increase maritime co-operation among navies of the littoral states of the Indian Ocean. IONS encourages the flow of information and cooperation between naval personnel.“Teg” set sail from Mumbai at the beginning of October along with three other naval ships for a two month long deployment to east Africa and the southern Indian Ocean region.Under the command of Rear Admiral R Hari Kumar, the ships called at several points en route to Nacala.After a stopover at the South African naval base at Simon’s Town, INS Teg took part in the India – Brazil – South Africa Maritime exercise (IBSAMAR) in the Indian Ocean.

GOVERNMENT SETS UP FUND FOR DEMOBILISED SOLDIERS

The Mozambican government on Tuesday set up a “Peace and National Reconciliation Fund” to provide loans for demobilised soldiers to help guarantee their reinsertion into society.The idea for the fund had been floated by President Armando Guebuza on 5 September, at the ceremony where he and Afonso Dhlakama, leader of the former rebel movement Renamo, signed the agreement on a cessation of military hostilities. Speaking to reporters after the weekly meeting of the Council of Ministers (Cabinet) the Minister of Planning and Development, Aiuba Cuereneia, said the find would finance economic and social projects of veterans of the independence war and of demobilised soldiers both from the armed forces and from Renamo. The widows of veterans and of demobilised soldiers can also benefit from the fund.“This fund has been created to promote the social and economic reinsertion of the former soldiers as well as to ensure the continued maintenance of peace and national reconciliation”, the Minister added.The Fund has its own administrative autonomy. It will be supervised by, but not subordinate to, the Ministry of Veterans’ Affairs which must regularly submit reports on the fund’s activities to the Council of Ministers.Cuereneia said the Fund is intended to create jobs for former soldiers, and support their social and economic development projects. It will also build up the professional skills of its beneficiaries so that they will be more likely to find jobs on the labour market. Initially the fund will be financed from the state budget to the tune of at least ten million US dollars a year, but it will also identify alternative sources of finance. Cuereneia said it can accept contributions from businesses and individuals, donations granted by national and foreign institutions.It can also be financed by bank loans, by repayments of the loans it makes, and other sources which may later be identified. Cuereneia said the fund will have a General Assembly of nine members – two appointed by the government, four by the signatories to the agreement on cessation of hostilities (the government and Renamo), two representing bodies financing the fund, and one representative of Mozambican private business.An executive directorate will be responsible for the day to day management of the fund, consisting of two professionals chosen by public tender on the basis of their competence. There will also be a three member Supervisory Board, chosen by the General Assembly, which will monitor the financial management of the Fund and the legality of its activities. The government has also revoked the decree setting up the Veterans’ Social Reinsertion Fund, since this overlaps with the new fund. The Veterans’ Fund had been managed by the Ministry of Veterans’ Affairs, and now all its assets will be transferred to the Peace and National Reconciliation Fund. Those assets will be used in the initial logistics necessary to establish the new fund.The exact number of people entitled to support from the Fund is not yet clear. Cuereneia said that from the government’s side there were about 100,000 potential beneficiaries (veterans of the independence war and soldiers demobilised in the post-independence period). But the government is not yet sure how many Renamo fighters would be covered, since Renamo is still refusing to deliver a list of the names of its “residual forces”. However, it is known, from the statistics of the United Nations Operation in Mozambique (ONUMOZ), that in the 1994 demobilisation, prior to the first multi-party elections, 20,537 Renamo fighters were demobilised and returned to civilian life.Loan schemes run by the government have a poor record of repayment. Since 2006 the government has been operating a District Development Fund (FDD), which began as a transfer of seven million meticais (about 226,000 US dollars, at current exchange rates) from the state budget to each of the 128 districts. The money was to be lent to beneficiaries with viable projects that would create jobs and boost food security. Eight years later the bulk of these loans have not been repaid. This destroyed the initial hopes that the FDD would be a revolving fund, in which new loans would be financed out of the repayment of old ones.

POLICE INVESTIGATING USE OF FIREARMS AGAINST TETE RIOT

The Mozambican police are investigating the use of live ammunition against rioting workers at a tobacco processing factory in the western city of Tete last Friday, according to a report in the Beira daily paper “Diario de Mocambique”.Over 500 workers were involved in the protest at the factory owned by the company Mozambique Leaf Tobacco (MLT), claiming that the company management was swindling them out of almost half their wages.The spokesperson for the Tete provincial police command, Luis Nudia, told reporters that the private security company hired by MLT was unable to quell the riot, and so the police were called in. When a normal police unit also failed to restore order, the authorities resorted to the riot police (FIR). The FIR unit opened fire on the unarmed protesters, using live ammunition. One MLT worker was seriously injured, but after treatment at Tete provincial hospital, he is now out of danger.Nudai said the police are investigating why the FIR unit believed it necessary to resort to lethal force. He pointed out that the riot police are trained to deal with disturbances by non-lethal means, including tear gas and rubber bullets.Furthermore, if the police do use firearms to control a disturbance, they should always fire into the air, and not directly into the crowd “as seems to have been the case”.Nudia said a unit is now investigating exactly where the bullets came from that struck the MLT workers.

Tuesday, November 11, 2014

Interesting analysis of 8%

António FranciscoWithout access to tenders will be extremely difficult to confirm or reject the suspicion about the huge size of the manipulated results of the vote on 15 October, starting at their own polling stations and, later, in clearings, counts and recounts the various levels of the pyramid: district, provincial and national. Anyway, though the statistics can be used to lie, the numbers themselves do not mentem.O Editorial of the last edition of the Mozambique Channel and advocates calling for a general audit of the electoral process, involving the review of bids, the order to distinguish the fake and forged edicts of the true and truly representative edicts of ballots. Still persist doubt on a fair number of valid tenders purposely destroyed and unusable. However, if there is sufficient capacity and willingness of political forces, including friends and international partners, it is still possible for the Constitutional Council (CC) try to save the honor of the convent. For the sake of stability, national unity and minimum confidence in the electoral system, let's still time to show that some of the institutions, including the CC, are effectively engaged and seeking to build a state of law. The route is simple and feasible. Just the CC determines the release of the numbers available in the submission so that they confess and dissipate much of the suspicions about the elections held on 15 October. We will see what he will do.Meanwhile, as an illustration of how have been possible to avoid a likely 2nd round in the election for the President of the Republic, then share some of the results of the analysis I began making the data available. For now, and unless the CC do something visible to be credible and to dispel doubts about the results announced by the CNE on 28 October, the data available actualemente deserve more suspicion and distrust than trust and confidence. The reasons are several, some of which date back to the number of registered voters declared himself the CNE.According to the edict of the CNE on the "Clearance General / President of the Republic," the number of registered voters was 10,964,978. Now, comparing this number with the estimated projections of INE's population in 2014 will be approximately 12,094,002. Ie, if the projections are correct INE, CNE ruled clearance over a million voters; more precisely 1,129,024 voters eligible to vote, but were not incritos in the electoral process. As for possible fraud, either through ballot box stuffing in favor of Candidate Philip Nyusi either by subtraction or destruction of votes at the expense of candidates Dhlakama and Simango, respectively, several hypotheses can be advanced. Immediately advance to a first hypothesis, leaving others for another opportunity.
Hypothesis 1: How was it possible to avoid the 2nd round?
Figure 1 illustrates the votes validated by the CNE for the president, according to documents released last October 28. According to the CNE, the votes are validated 4,830,169 out of a total 10,964,978 registered voters declared.
Figure 2, consists of a graph 2a and 2b compare the results of the CNE with a first hypothesis, how could have been avoided predictable 2nd voltal. Notice in Figure 2b, as the 2nd round was eminent. It was enough that at polling stations has distorted the count, giving 8% more votes (via illegal ballot box stuffing or exchange of results), in favor of Candidate Philip Nyusi and simultaneously subtracted 4% of the votes Dhlakama and Simango respectively. If it was done, so the CNE managed to avoid being forced to declare the second round. If I had not done, perhaps we would be singing and laughing, "I trust you" and / or "I do not trust you."
As can be seen there was no need to create such confusion, to the point of having exaggerated and exposed a huge anxiety and fear that the manipulators of the vote had 2ªa back. Some will argue against this hypothesis:
"This is pure speculation."
I answer, in anticipation: "Yeah. But who makes me do it is the CNE "As so many others, I made use of my right to vote. Unlike previous cases, I ended up going to vote, instead of keeping me on my abstention. So, I have a right to know where has my vote and everyone else who voted. The solution to avoid speculation like this and others that I can still share, is in the hands of the DC Council Constitucional.Basta release edicts, allowing citizens like me convinced that numbers do not mentemos, can judge for myself if the CNE is or is not telling the truth. Free the data and much of the suspicions, doubts and misgivings, around the figures released by STAE / CNE desaparecerão.Entretanto, let's wait, let alone by the Constituicional Council and especially of what will and with our votes! Will at least require them to show the edicts of the tables and tabulations district? Or will be happy and pleased with the overall results and agredados CNE, those results released on 28 October.
Let us wait!
(Teacher Francisco António)


DHLAKAMA CALLS FOR CARETAKER GOVERNMENT

Afonso Dhlakama, leader of the Mozambique’s main opposition party, the former rebel movement Renamo, has called for the formation of a caretaker government to run the country until the next general elections in 2019.In a lengthy interview in Friday’s issue of the independent weekly “Savana”, Dhlakama repeated his claim that all elections in Mozambique, including the ones held on 15 November, have been fraudulent.He shied away from the term “government of national unity”, and was extremely vague as to how a caretaker government might be formed. The only thing he would state with certainty was that he would not be a member of such a government. Instead he would claim the status of “leader of the opposition”.
Dhlakama declared that everyone in the current government “must go”, with the possible exception of ambassadors. He said he was willing to draw up a list of people who could be appointed minister or national directors. The ruling Frelimo Party would also make proposals, “and we shall negotiate”.
“Frelimo has to sit down seriously with Renamo and we’ll design a strategy for how we survive until 2019”, Dhlakama insisted. “I am willing to help the country”.The long and rambling interview was peppered with insults. Thus he dismissed the chairperson of the National Elections Commission (CNE), Abdul Carimo, as “the moslem”, and claimed that the election campaign of the man who won, Frelimo candidate Filipe Nyusi, was “a crime” because Nyusi spent a lot of money.Dhlakama claimed that Carimo had been “obliged” to announce results that showed a victory for Nyusi and Frelimo. He ignored the awkward fact that the results announced by the CNE, giving Nyusi 57 per cent of the vote, are broadly in line with the parallel count organised by the Electoral Observatory, the largest and most credible group of Mozambican election observers.Dhlakama also claimed that it was the presence of Renamo members inside the electoral apparatus at all levels which had allowed the opposition to detect fraud. Yet before the elections Renamo had claimed that the point of placing opposition figures at all levels of the executive body, the Electoral Administration Technical Secretariat (STAE), was not to detect fraud but to prevent it.Dhlakama claimed this time “it was easy to catch the people who committed fraud”. If that is the case, why have they not appeared in court?
For, at Renamo’s insistence, the electoral legislation was rewritten in February, and radically changed the appeals procedure. Preciously appeals against alleged fraud rose up the hierarchy of election commissions – district, provincial and national. But now any claim of illicit behaviour at a polling station must be submitted within 48 hours to the district court.Although it was Renamo which introduced this change, at the elections Renamo did not use the new appeals route. If the claims of a “mega-fraud” were true, one would have expected hundreds of appeals to the courts. Instead between them the three main parties (Renamo, Frelimo and the Mozambique Democratic Movement, MDM) only submitted 24 appeals in the entire country. Thus most of the courts in the 128 districts were faced with no electoral work at all.According to the summary presented by the Supreme Court last week, the Renamo appeals were all rejected either because they contained no evidence, or because they were submitted beyond the 48 hour deadline. Neither Dhlakama nor the “Savana” interviewer bothered to mention such awkward details.As for Filipe Nyusi, “Nobody voted for him”, declared Dhlakama. “Even in his own land (the northern province of Cabo Delgado) nobody voted for him. Its just half a dozen Makondes (Nyusi’s ethnic group) in Muidumbe, Nangade and Mueda, who don’t even amount to 30,000. They stuffed the ballot boxes. It’s all a puppet show. He knows he didn’t win the elections”.Dhlakama added he could not accept that all 14 seats in Gaza province would go to Frelimo “because no competition is permitted there”. But a few lines later in the interview he boasted of addressing a large rally in the Gaza town of Chibuto. He thought it was “trickery” for him to address a large crowd, be applauded, and then win no seats in the province.
His solution was simple, albeit entirely illegal. Either split the Gaza seats 50-50 between Frelimo and Renamo or remove Gaza completely from the incoming parliament. “One of the things I’m going to tell President Guebuza is that I will wage war with the Constitutional Council (the body that must eventually validate and proclaim election results) until they accept”, Dhlakama declared. “The solution is to annul the results from Gaza”.Dhlakama claimed that “our members” were thrown out of the Gaza districts of Chicualacuala, Mabalane, Massingir, Massangena, Chibuto and Guija. This is the first time such a sweeping claim has been made. Between them those districts had 356 polling stations, and at every one of them Renamo had the right to appoint a member of staff plus two monitors (one full and one supplementary).In addition every district elections commission contains two Renamo representatives, one of whom is the deputy chairperson. Each district branch of STAE has a Renamo assistant director, two Renamo assistant department heads, and two other staff members appointed by Renamo. Is Dhlakama claiming that all these hundreds of people were expelled from the Gaza districts? Or did Renamo never get round to appointing some of them?
Dhlakama also claimed that there was a low turnout in the opposition stronghold of Zambezia because “I believe that STAE received orders to strategically remove the names of people (from the electoral registers) because most of them vote for the opposition”.But Renamo is just as much inside STAE in Zambezia as anywhere else. Did the Renamo assistant provincial and district STAE directors in Zambezia not notice names being removed from the electoral registers? Perhaps Dhlakama is suggesting that all the STAE members his party appointed are incompetent.

Friday, October 31, 2014

The Winner

The results announced by the National Elections Commission give victory in the presidential, the Frelimo candidate, Philip Nyusi, with 57.3% of the vote. According to the CNE and STAE, Dhlakama, Renamo gained 36.61%, and Simango, MDM, got 6.36% of votes.
In the legislative elections, the CNE and STAE attribute the victory to the Frelimo party with 144 MPs. Renamo deputies gets 89, and MDM with 17, out of 250 seats in parliament.
Renamo wins in three Provincial Assemblies.The Provincial Assemblies, Renamo managed to get the largest number of seats in three assemblies: Zambezia, Tete and Sofala.
In Zambezia province, won 51 seats, Renamo, Frelimo won 37, and the MDM won four, out of 92 seats.In Tete, Renamo won 44 seats, Frelimo won 35, and the MDM obtained 3, a total of 82 mandates.In Sofala, Renamo won 46 seats, Frelimo won 29, and the MDM won seven in a universe of 82 seats.In Tete and Nampula, it appears that Renamo succeeded largest number of seats in the provincial assemblies, but lost in the laws, which suggests some data manipulation.For example, in Tete, in laws, elected 10 deputies, while for the provincial assemblies obtained 44 seats.In Zambezia, Renamo, in the elections to the provincial assemblies, won 51 seats, while the laws had the same number of seats that Frelimo, with 22 seats. The results of the overall clearance of last October 15 elections were announced yesterday (30) by the President of the National Electoral Commission, Abdul Carimo, and the Director General of the Technical Secretariat for Electoral Administration, Philibert Naife.

Thursday, October 30, 2014

Serious, very serious

The Mozambican government on Wednesday in Maputo signed an agreement with the Joaquim Chissano Foundation and the Peace Parks Foundation to fight wildlife crime.The partnership will support the development of dedicated anti-poaching operations in and around the Limpopo National Park (PNL) in the southern province of Gaza.The agreement follows on from a Memorandum of Understanding signed in April by the Mozambican and South African governments promoting joint action on the management and conservation of biodiversity, and aimed at stopping poaching, particularly of rhinos.Under Wednesday’s agreement, the Peace Parks Foundation will spend thirty million rand (about 2.8 million US dollars) and offer material support and assistance to anti-poaching activities.These funds come from a 15.4 million Euro donation from the Dutch and Swedish lotteries to the Peace Parks Foundation.According to a press release from the Peace Parks Foundation, wildlife crime is the fourth largest illegal activity in the world after drug trafficking, counterfeiting and human trafficking, with an annual turnover of at least 19 billion US dollars.
The Foundation laments that poaching “is decimating Africa’s iconic species of elephant, rhino, lion and leopard and threatening the very existence of Africa’s protected areas where tourism is a major GDP contributor”.Its Chief Executive, Werner Myburgh, explained that “many of the actions will be taken jointly by Mozambique and South Africa. Wildlife crime is often transnational by nature and transfrontier conservation areas and agreements, such as these signed today, offer an important platform to counter the decimation of our protected species”.The project includes the updating of the communications technology used by rangers as well as shared communication across the border with South Africa. Rangers will also receive training, new equipment and improved working conditions.An essential part of the project involves giving support to the judicial system in Mozambique so that it can implement the stiff penalties provided for in the Conservation Areas Act.In April the Mozambican parliament, the Assembly of the Republic, passed a bill dramatically increasing the penalties for poaching, particularly of endangered species.The law proposes prison sentences of between eight and 12 years for people who kill, without a licence, any protected species, or who use banned fishing gear, such as explosives or toxic substances. The same penalty will apply to people who set forests or woodlands on fire (poachers often use fire to drive animals into the open).Anybody using illegal firearms or snares, even if they do not catch protected species, can be sentenced to two years imprisonment.In addition, those found guilty of the illegal exploitation, storage, transport or sale of protected species will be fined between 50 and 1,000 times the minimum monthly national wage in force in the public administration (at current exchange rates, that would be a fine of between 4,425 and 88,500 US dollars).Central to the project is the Joaquim Chissano Foundation’s Wildlife Preservation Initiative. This is developing research on policy formation in Mozambique as well as promoting the use of sniffer dogs along known trafficking routes.The PNL covers over 1.1 million hectares, and forms part of the Greater Limpopo Transfrontier Park, which also includes the Kruger National Park in South Africa, and the Gonarezhou Park in Zimbabwe. Between them, the three parks cover a total area of 5.5 million hectares.The Peace Parks Foundation was established in 1997 by the then South African President Nelson Mandela, Anton Rupert, chair of the South African Branch of WWF (Worldwide Fund for Nature) and Prince Bernhard of the Netherlands. It aims to promote Southern African Peace Parks (also known as transfrontier conservation areas) including the Greater Limpopo Transfrontier Park.



Results today, 15 hours

The National Election Commission will announce today at the Conference Center "Joaquim Chissano", the final results of the vote on 15 October, which was marked by episodes of election fraud and police violence in all constituencies dominated by the opposition, having also been shooting of citizens. All opposition protests submitted to the electoral bodies and courts of first instance were rejected.
There were more than 700 000 votes were considered null subject of protest by the opposition. On Monday, the National Elections Commission reclassified only 178,000 votes, and were still to be reviewed by the subcommittee of the Legal Affairs over 2000 votes on which there was protest. National and international election observers have delivered their reports, which indicate widespread irregularities, with strong potential to call into question the transparency of the process. The opposition has come to publicly announce it will not recognize the results of these elections, because of clear cases of electoral fraud. Came to be held in the city of Beira, the chief of the Election Operations STAE, Sonia Zimba after being caught committing a crime to falsify results in favor of Frelimo and Philip Nyusi. There are strong suspicions that such collaborator STAE is already free. But the information was not confirmed. It is unlikely that the CNE announce results different from those that have already been presented in favor of Philip Nyusi and Frelimo party. The uncertainty is about the moment after the announcement of the results, since Renamo, on Tuesday, announced that it won the general elections.

However if the other members of Renamo and MDM is refusing to sign the results and there is no consensus CNE may trigger the system votação.A judging by the polls, 4 Renamo, the MDM 1 will not be enough to prevent the disclosure of results.The civil society is the one that can unbalancing with 12 seats.

Tuesday, October 28, 2014

Journalists Jeremias Langa & Tomás Vieira Mario

It is not through ignorance or "deficit" of understanding of what constitutes electoral processes. It's not for lack of experience or lack of baggage that fills Mozambicans the most diverse type of messages. Nor is it for lack of knowledge of what are the ethical principles and ethics of journalism.Who prospers and refers to Philip Jacinto Nyusi as PR is nothing more and nothing less, than Tomas Viera Mario (TVM), in the televised debate of STV, on the night of 26 October 2014. This comes at a time that have not yet been official results announced by the CNE.
Be in error, or was it just a bit flighty and attentive to one commentator / analyst pressed throughout a nebula approach the situation?
Will be a message that seeks to put Mozambicans face a "fait accompli" as long Joaquim Chissano has been done?
How does the statement of someone with the journalistic and political career of securities to be seen? If, for a careful observer, was the image of the Lord in question was paying advising the Frelimo largely of its "pronouncements", it is also clear that he intends Mozambicans consider the numbers so far advanced by the agencies election are accepted without complaint by Mozambicans.In the wake of partial and fully intended to devalue addictions, irregularities and illegal "pronouncements", has been a tendency of commentators / analysts with captive space in the media the idea that pre-election violence and election day is not a problem. The idea that accusations of "ballot box stuffing" issue is that there has been past. So as an advisor to the Minister of Justice caught in the act trying to "ballot stuffing" was not sanctioned, either convince themselves Mozambicans that did not happen. Now arise analysts seeking to develop theories of ethno-political voting tendency in Gaza to explain astronomical numbers voting in favor of Frelimo and its candidate. Deliberately ignores relevant factors that denounce unequivocally meticulously planned exercise adulteration of the popular will. Cut up the "passing lanes", a play that we have seen in the past.When the President of the Constitutional Council aligns the pitch of the acceptance of results, which is even talking about?
The route of the fraud does not constitute or confer democratic legitimacy on which winners will be declared through manipulation and "electoral engineering". Someone said that it was for elections without independent audit of "software" and it was serious.Was up for election in a troubled environment, full of improvisation and open so that we could honestly without executing illegal maneuvers spaces. And how honesty is scarce in the country and how well the shame is scarce, the results did not wait.If can not persist in calling our democracy as a deficit due to his young age, and seek to compare situations with other neighboring or distant countries. Competence, integrity and responsibility are elements that take and apply, or deny.
The apparent promiscuity among democratic powers, the seemingly peaceful cohabitation between who appears lawful whom is known as belonging to gray areas give rise to doubts as to have consistency and uprightness of candidates and parties. The "Caesar's wife must have corresponding form and content." Commentators / analysts Service, part of them, they forget quickly the genesis of the war 18 months. To be chosen by criminal tampering of election in favor of Frelimo candidate results, someone signals that the proposed schedule is to risk again the peace and stability of the country. To be chosen by "organized clutter" of elections, gives it a sign that the cultivators of autocracy not disarm or show themselves willing to accept the will expressed by popular vote.We have a problem on their hands that will not be televised programs to solve. Whatever is said or repeated will not persuade Mozambicans that his vote is reflected in the announced results, if there is a serious screening irregularities and discrepancies in the numbers. Arrangements that can be done between different policy will be useful to the extent that they are able to have clear understandings about what happened and ways to normalize the situation in view of the higher interests of the nation.Feels that there is no celebratory mood because it is recognized that there were serious problems throughout the electoral process and the competing parties are willing to complain about with documents and facts. Those in power are making a risk management outputs and pondering over what it hopes will be the final position of the opposition. Deny that there are problems, some of them incurable, such is the level of existing addiction and detected, would truthfully. And wonder how journalists feedback as TVM refuse or hesitate to enter into his analysis. The analytical cosmetics have consequences, and one of them is to convince politicians that evaluations of such "strategists" are valid and provide certainty as to the route chosen.
The lapse of TVM(Tomás Vieira Mário), or personal conviction, has value and should be taken for their worth.Balanced penchant FL debate on 26 October 2014 at STV well worth the worth. Each of us has their own opinion and their right trend."Nobody dislikes the taste it has." But, as public figures, there are things you can not say.We do not want a repeat factor "Brazão Mazula" as a conditioning element of the election results.The CNE and STAE failed and fail every day that delay the announcement of the election results.Support the proposed layoff of people pack too costly for the State Budget and which do not produce credible results.Tied in "procurement" and obedience to instructions to a strange process we want fair, free and transparent schemes, these people should be banned from serving in the state apparatus.There can be contemplations for those in crisis fosters national stability.Any disruption of the current situation tolerable peace be directly attributed to whom vitiated the electoral process.Mozambique can not continue to be a guinea pig of computer experiments paid by OGE, to ensure the maintenance in power of this or that candidate or party. (Noah Nhantumbo)

“REQUALIFICATION” OF INVALID VOTES THROUGHOUT WEEKEND

Mozambique’s National Elections Commission (CNE) continued throughout the weekend with the gigantic task of reclassifying hundreds of votes which were regarded as invalid during the polling station count immediately following the 15 October general elections.By Sunday, nine of the 11 provincial constituencies had been dealt with, leaving until last the two largest provinces, Nampula and Zambezia. The CNE had brought in staff from its executive body, the Electoral Administration Technical Secretariat (stea), and teams of two members each worked their way conscientiously through mountains of supposedly invalid votes. Each ballot paper was thus seen by at least two people. The teams were chosen so that one was a staff member indicated by the ruling Frelimo Party, and the other by one of the opposition parties.The teams were clearly working to rescue as many of the ballots as possible, giving the voters the benefit of the doubt wherever they could. Watching the “requalification” of supposedly invalid votes from the parliamentary election in Zambezia and Nampula, AIM noted that, quite unlike previous years, the majority of votes sorted by the teams watched were reclassified as valid. In many cases this was because the polling station staff had been too strict, judging a ballot as invalid simply because the “x” or, in the case of illiterate voters, the fingerprint, strayed beyond the borders of the favoured party’s box. Voters using the inkpad rather than the pen provided found it particularly difficult to mark the parliamentary ballot paper because so many minor parties were standing. The names were crowded together, and if a voter put his fingerprint on the box for one party, he might find it difficult to prevent some of the ink from going into the box above or below.The teams adopted a common sense attitude – if most of the fingerprint or cross was in one box, that was the party the voter had chosen. But there were many votes classified as invalid at the polling stations where there could be no doubt – the entire cross or entire fingerprint was neatly placed in one box. AIM saw a string of about 50 perfectly valid votes for the ruling Frelimo party, one after another, which polling station staff had seen fit to reject.There seem two plausible explanations for this. One is deliberate fraud – in the middle of the night, hoping they would not be spotted, staff surreptitiously tossed votes they disapproved of into the pile of invalid votes.Alternatively, tired of doing the job properly, staff just shoved fistfuls of ballots into the heap of invalid votes, without even looking at them, in order to finish more quickly, fully aware that the votes would be rescued in Maputo. The first hypothesis assumes that staff did not know what happens to votes declared invalid, the second that they did.In both cases it is not possible to know which district, let alone which polling station, these votes came from. At this stage, the votes are only dealt with by province.One problem that occurred in both Zambezia and Nampula was the use of felt tipped pens. Since these pens are not included in polling station kits, the voters must have brought them from home. They seem to have taken seriously the rumours that the ballpoint pens at the polling stations were not trustworthy and that, if they used them, their votes might mysteriously disappear.The problem with felt tipped pens is that they put a lot of ink onto the paper, so that, when the paper is folded, ink can be transferred to the other side, making it look as if the voter had tried to vote for two parties. Careless use of the ink pad can have the same effect. Some voters make their feelings very clear indeed – but in ways that invalidate their votes. Thus the voter who bothered to write “Party of bandits! Sons of whores!” in the Renamo box, was just wasting his time. The CNE expects to have the requalification complete by Sunday evening, and the reclassified votes can then be added to the totals of valid votes for all candidates and parties in the 11 provinces. 

Saturday, October 18, 2014

ONCE AGAIN, CENTRAL BANK HOLDS INTEREST RATES STEADY



The Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of Mozambique, meeting in Maputo on Friday, decided to keep the bank’s key interest rates unchanged for at least another month.The statement issued by the Committee said that the Standing Lending Facility (the interest rate paid by the commercial banks to the central bank for money borrowed on the Interbank Money Market) will remain at 8.25 per cent.The Standing Deposit Facility (the rate paid by the central bank to the commercial banks on money they deposit with it) remains at 1.5 per cent, and the Compulsory Reserves Coefficient - the amount of money that the commercial banks must deposit with the Bank of Mozambique – is also unchanged at eight per cent.It is now 13 months since there was any change in the Central Bank’s interest rates. The last alteration was in October 2013, when the Standing Lending Facility was cut by 50 base points, from 8.75 to 8.25 per cent.The Committee also decided that the central bank will intervene in the inter-bank markets in order to ensure that the monetary base does not exceed 53.786 billion meticais (about 1.74 billion US dollars, at current exchange rates) by the end of October. At the end of September, the monetary base had reached 52.846 billion meticais, 1.5 per cent lower than the target of 53.648 billion meticais.The monetary base had risen by 863 million meticais in September. Bank reserves had risen by 209 million meticais (1.1 per cent), and the amount of notes and coins in circulation by 654 million meticais (two per cent). Over the past year, the monetary base has risen by 9.4 billion meticais (21.7 per cent).The statement from the committee noted that, according to the consumer price index for the three major cities (Maputo, Beira and Nampula), the September inflation rate was minus 0.17 per cent. September was thus the fifth successive month in which prices fell.
Prices rose in the first four months of the year – by 0.98 per cent in January, 0.39 per cent in February, 0.91 per cent in March and 0.12 per cent in April. Then inflation turned into deflation and prices began to fall – by 0.38 per cent in May, 0.52 per cent in June, by 0.04 per cent in July, by 0.55 per cent in August, and now by 0.17 per cent. The result is that accumulated inflation over the year – from 1 January to 30 September – stands at 0.71 per cent.The monetary policy committee commented that the behavior of inflation over the last five months “is explained by the greater offer of fruit and vegetables, and by the stability of the metical on the exchange market, supported by the Bank of Mozambique making an adequate amount of foreign currency available”.At the end of September, the metical was quoted at 30.8 to the US dollar on the Inter-Bank Exchange Market, which was a depreciation over the month of 0.95 per cent. Since the start of the year the metical has depreciated by 2.84 per cent against the dollar.The metical rose against the South African rand in September. There were 2.75 meticais to the rand at the end of the month, compared with 2.89 on 31 August. The metical thus appreciated against the rand by 4.84 per cent over the month, and by 3.51 per cent since the beginning of the year.Preliminary figures for the end of September show a fall of 158.3 million US dollars in Mozambique’s net international reserves. By the end of the month, the reserves stood at 3.093 billion dollars, enough to cover 4.3 months of imports of goods and non-factor services (excluding the imports made by the foreign investment mega-projects).As for commodity prices, the Committee noted that the price of Mozambique’s main export, aluminium, is continuing to increase. In August the world market price of aluminum rose by 4.29 per cent. Over the year from September 2013 to August 2014, aluminium prices rose by 11.8 per cent.Coal prices are continuing to fall, which must be a matter of considerable concern for the companies who have invested heavily in coal mining in the western Mozambican province of Tete. In August the price of coking coal fell by 1.4 per cent and of thermal coal by 0.4 per cent. Over the past year the price of coking coal fell by 24.4 per cent. August also saw another sharp fall – of 10.4 per cent – in the international price of natural gas.One item of good news for Mozambique is that the price of the liquid fuels it imports is continuing to fall. The benchmark Brent Crude was quoted at 94.67 US dollars a barrel on 30 September, but fell to 84.47 dollars a barrel on 16 October.