Saturday, October 18, 2014

ONCE AGAIN, CENTRAL BANK HOLDS INTEREST RATES STEADY



The Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of Mozambique, meeting in Maputo on Friday, decided to keep the bank’s key interest rates unchanged for at least another month.The statement issued by the Committee said that the Standing Lending Facility (the interest rate paid by the commercial banks to the central bank for money borrowed on the Interbank Money Market) will remain at 8.25 per cent.The Standing Deposit Facility (the rate paid by the central bank to the commercial banks on money they deposit with it) remains at 1.5 per cent, and the Compulsory Reserves Coefficient - the amount of money that the commercial banks must deposit with the Bank of Mozambique – is also unchanged at eight per cent.It is now 13 months since there was any change in the Central Bank’s interest rates. The last alteration was in October 2013, when the Standing Lending Facility was cut by 50 base points, from 8.75 to 8.25 per cent.The Committee also decided that the central bank will intervene in the inter-bank markets in order to ensure that the monetary base does not exceed 53.786 billion meticais (about 1.74 billion US dollars, at current exchange rates) by the end of October. At the end of September, the monetary base had reached 52.846 billion meticais, 1.5 per cent lower than the target of 53.648 billion meticais.The monetary base had risen by 863 million meticais in September. Bank reserves had risen by 209 million meticais (1.1 per cent), and the amount of notes and coins in circulation by 654 million meticais (two per cent). Over the past year, the monetary base has risen by 9.4 billion meticais (21.7 per cent).The statement from the committee noted that, according to the consumer price index for the three major cities (Maputo, Beira and Nampula), the September inflation rate was minus 0.17 per cent. September was thus the fifth successive month in which prices fell.
Prices rose in the first four months of the year – by 0.98 per cent in January, 0.39 per cent in February, 0.91 per cent in March and 0.12 per cent in April. Then inflation turned into deflation and prices began to fall – by 0.38 per cent in May, 0.52 per cent in June, by 0.04 per cent in July, by 0.55 per cent in August, and now by 0.17 per cent. The result is that accumulated inflation over the year – from 1 January to 30 September – stands at 0.71 per cent.The monetary policy committee commented that the behavior of inflation over the last five months “is explained by the greater offer of fruit and vegetables, and by the stability of the metical on the exchange market, supported by the Bank of Mozambique making an adequate amount of foreign currency available”.At the end of September, the metical was quoted at 30.8 to the US dollar on the Inter-Bank Exchange Market, which was a depreciation over the month of 0.95 per cent. Since the start of the year the metical has depreciated by 2.84 per cent against the dollar.The metical rose against the South African rand in September. There were 2.75 meticais to the rand at the end of the month, compared with 2.89 on 31 August. The metical thus appreciated against the rand by 4.84 per cent over the month, and by 3.51 per cent since the beginning of the year.Preliminary figures for the end of September show a fall of 158.3 million US dollars in Mozambique’s net international reserves. By the end of the month, the reserves stood at 3.093 billion dollars, enough to cover 4.3 months of imports of goods and non-factor services (excluding the imports made by the foreign investment mega-projects).As for commodity prices, the Committee noted that the price of Mozambique’s main export, aluminium, is continuing to increase. In August the world market price of aluminum rose by 4.29 per cent. Over the year from September 2013 to August 2014, aluminium prices rose by 11.8 per cent.Coal prices are continuing to fall, which must be a matter of considerable concern for the companies who have invested heavily in coal mining in the western Mozambican province of Tete. In August the price of coking coal fell by 1.4 per cent and of thermal coal by 0.4 per cent. Over the past year the price of coking coal fell by 24.4 per cent. August also saw another sharp fall – of 10.4 per cent – in the international price of natural gas.One item of good news for Mozambique is that the price of the liquid fuels it imports is continuing to fall. The benchmark Brent Crude was quoted at 94.67 US dollars a barrel on 30 September, but fell to 84.47 dollars a barrel on 16 October.

Thursday, October 16, 2014

STAE PROJECTIONS GIVE VICTORY TO NYUSI

Filipe Nyusi, the presidential candidate of the ruling Frelimo Party, seems certain to win Wednesday’s election, but with a much lower share of the vote than the current President, Armando Guebuza, achieved in the 2009 election.The initial projections made by the Electoral Administration Technical Secretariat (STAE) are that Nyusi will achieve over 60 per cent of vote, almost double the vote of his nearest rival, Afonso Dhlakama, leader of the former rebel movement Renamo.The provisional results released by STAE in Maputo on Thursday morning cover only 1,454 polling stations – or 8.55 per cent of the 17,010 stations in the entire country. Although this sample is small, the projections from it are broadly in line with projections made by other media and observer groups.

The polling stations covered in the STAE announcement gave the following results:
Filipe Nyusi (Frelimo) – 272,310 (60.69 per cent)
Afonso Dhlakama (Renamo) – 141,180 (31.46 per cent)
Daviz Simango (MDM) – 35,235 (7.85 per cent).

The head of the STAE press department, Lucas Jose, gave journalists figures from five of the eleven provincial constituencies. Those results are as follows:

Cabo Delgado province (results from 198 of 1,555 polling stations)
Filipe Nyusi – 15,207 (77.9 per cent)
Afonso Dhlakama – 3,794 (19.43 per cent)
Daviz Simango – 521 (2.67 per cent)

Zambezia province (results from 236 of 2,925 polling stations)
Filipe Nyusi – 25,630 (43.49 per cent)
Afonso Dhlakama – 27,609 (46.85 per cent)
Daviz Simango – 5,688 (9.65 per cent)

Manica province (results from 460 of 1,104 polling stations)
Filipe Nyusi – 73,738 (50.93 per cent)
Afonso Dhlakama – 65,398 (45.17 per cent)
Daviz Simango – 5,661 (3.91 per cent)

Gaza province (results from 58 of 1,924 polling stations)
Filipe Nyusi – 15,387 (85.34 per cent)
Afonso Dhlakama – 1,104 (6.12 per cent)
Daviz Simango – 1,540 (8.54 per cent)

Maputo City (results from 502 of 944 polling stations)
Filipe Nyusi – 142,348 (68.62 per cent)
Afonso Dhlakama – 43,275 (20.86 per cent)
Daviz Simango – 21,825 (10.52 per cent)

As for the parliamentary election, STAE has processed far fewer of the results sheets from the polling stations. Jose could only give provisional results from a fairly small number of polling stations in four provinces. These results were:
Cabo Delgado province (results from 198 of 1,555 polling stations)
Frelimo – 13,239 (79.79 per cent)
Renamo – 2,693 (16.23 per cent)
MDM – 571 (3.44 per cent)

Zambezia province (results from 31 of 2,925 polling stations)
Frelimo – 8,318 (46.19 per cent)
Renamo – 7,895 (43.84 per cent)
MDM – 1,767 (9.81 per cent)

Manica province (results from 112 of 1,104 polling stations)
Frelimo – 15,132 (50.74 per cent)
Renamo – 12,753 (42.76 per cent)
MDM – 1,412 (4.73 per cent)

Maputo Province (results from 203 of 1,244 polling stations)
Frelimo – 42,091 (70.71 per cent)
Renamo – 9,436 (15.85 per cent)
MDM – 6,567 (11.03 per cent).

The “Mozambique Political Process Bulletin”, published by AWEPA (European Parliamentarians for Africa) and by the anti-corruption NGO CIP (Centre for Public Integrity), ventures a projection that Nyusi will end up with 60 per cent of the presidential vote, Dhlakama with 32 per cent and Simango with eight per cent.As for the parliamentary elections, the Bulletin predicts that Frelimo will win 57 per cent of the vote, Renamo 30 per cent and the MDM 12 per cent. The other one per cent is scattered around the 27 minor parties contesting the elections. On the basis of this forecast, the eleven provincial constituencies will between give Frelimo 142 seats in the country’s parliament, the Assembly of the Republic, Renamo 75 and the MDM 31.This only adds up to 148 seats, because the remaining two parliamentary seats are allocated to the constituencies in the Mozambican diaspora. No results from polling stations in the diaspora have yet reached AIM. 
On past performance it seems likely that both these seats will go to Frelimo.These projections are a significant setback for Frelimo. In 2009, Guebuza and Frelimo won around 75 per cent of the vote, and Frelimo had 191 deputies in the 250 member parliament. With a majority of well over two thirds, Frelimo could have changed the constitution on its own, if it so desired. This time the Frelimo majority seems likely to fall well short of two thirds.As for Renamo, it has made a remarkable recovery. Dhlakama’s percentage of the vote seems set to double compared with the 2009 figure, while the Renamo parliamentary group will be boosted from the current 51 to around 75. This is despite Dhlakama’s decision to return to war last year in order to force changes in the electoral legislation. Any belief that Renamo’s murderous behavior would cost it votes has proved illusory.The MDM will certainly be disappointed that it failed to build on its successes in the 2013 municipal elections. Those successes now seem due to the fact that Renamo boycotted the municipal polls, and so all opposition votes went to the MDM. With Renamo back in the picture, many people who made their political home briefly with the MDM have drifted back to Dhlakama.In the current parliament the MDM only holds eight seats, largely because it was only able to stand in four constituencies in 2009. Standing in all constituencies this time, the MDM is likely to see the number of its parliamentarians rise to over 30.

NO DECISION YET FROM CNE ON RE-RUN ELECTION IN SOME AREAS

Mozambique’s National Elections Commission (CNE) has yet to decide whether to re-run the general elections in those areas where polling stations did not open, or were sabotaged, on Wednesday.The law does allow for a repetition of the elections in such cases, and on a Wednesday night television panel CNE spokesperson Paulo Cuinica suggested this was precisely what the CNE would do in the case of four polling stations which failed to open in the northernmost province of Niassa.These stations are in the remote area of Lupilichi, near the Tanzanian border. Only 669 voters are registered there – but they have the same right to vote as any other Mozambicans, and it was no fault of theirs that the electoral bodies failed to bring the polling station staff and voting materials there.At a Thursday press conference, Cuinica could not state categorically that the election would be re-run here, only that it was a matter that the CNE will decide.Similarly with the case of polling stations destroyed by the former rebel movement Renamo in Tsangano district, in the western province of Tete. This was the most serious incident of violence during the election. Renamo supporters torched polling stations, destroying the ballot papers, and are also reported to have taken hostage three policemen and two polling station staff (though Cuinica was unable to confirm this detail).The CNE must also look at several other serious irregularities: for instance, in the coastal town of Angoche, where groups of Renamo youths also went on the rampage, polling station staff evacuated several polling stations for security reasons. This meant that the primary count could not take place at the polling stations, as dictated by the law.Instead, the staff put the ballot boxes and other materials on their heads and walked to the Angoche district offices of the CNE’s executive body, the Electoral Administration Technical Secretariat (STAE). 
The count was then conducted at the STAE offices.Cuinica said this was justified since “the conditions did not exist to count the votes at the polling stations”. But the CNE will have to decide whether this was the right call, and if not, whether to re-run the election at these polling stations.Asked about claims by Renamo and by the Mozambique Democratic Movement (MDM) that the elections were characterized by “generalized irregularities”, Cuinica said that so far the CNE has received no formal complaints from either of these parties.He pointed out that the opposition parties not only had monitors at the polling stations, but the main political parties (Frelimo, Renamo and the MDM) were each able to appoint a member of staff at each of 17,010 polling stations.In addition, the elections had been watched by national and foreign observers, and by a large number of Mozambican and foreign journalists. Cuinica thus had no doubt that, despite the violent incidents which took place, in general the election could be described as free and fair. 

Wednesday, October 15, 2014

RENAMO DESTROYS BALLOT PAPERS IN TETE



Supporters of the former rebel movement Renamo destroyed ballot papers on Wednesday morning in polling stations located in three schools in Tsangano district in the western Mozambican province of Tete, according to a report in the “Mozambican Political Process Bulletin”, published by AWEPA (European Parliamentarians for Africa), and by the anti-corruption NGO CIP (Centre for Public Integrity).The Bulletin’s correspondent gives a completely different account of this event from that in the anti-government newsheet “CanalMoz”, which claimed that Renamo was preventing electoral fraud, and that it was members of the public who set fire to suspect ballot boxes and the votes they contained.The Bulletin said the excuse for the violence was a claim that ballot boxes had been kept in the homes of community leaders, where they had been stuffed with votes for the ruling Frelimo Party.This ought to be impossible, because, before voting begins, the ballot boxes are opened and shown to monitors of the political parties, and any observers and journalists present, precisely to show that they are empty. They are then resealed and voting commences.
During the clashes between the Renamo supporters and the police two people were injured in one of the schools, and 11 arrests were made. One policeman fled from his post, abandoning his AK-47 rifle, which was then seized by Renamo members. Voting was interrupted, and the three schools were completely abandoned. The Bulletin added that something similar happened at a school in Moatize district, on the boundary with Tsangano, but gave no details.
In the northern coastal town of Angoche, voting was able to begin in 10 polling stations which had the wrong electoral registers. The Electoral Administration Technical Secretariat (STAE) found that the registers had been sent to the wrong school. STAE was able to recover them and sent them to the correct stations.Little by little, the polling stations in Beira which failed to open on time began opening their doors to voters in the early afternoon. Thus the polling stations located at the Massange Primary School began to operate at about 13.20 – almost six and a half hours after they should have opened. In one polling station, at the 12 October school, voting only began at 14.30.One strange phenomenon reported in a few areas is polling stations without voters. Five polling stations in the northern city of Cuamba, and seven in Manica town, in the centre of the country, opened but nobody was voting. The most likely explanation is that these stations are not in the same places as the voter registration posts, and nobody told the voters of the switch.

ELECTIONS 2014



Encontrados boletins de voto a favor da FrelimoSeventeen ballots were found in Polling Station number 04038101 located in the Primary School and Complete Coalane in Quelimane. They were already marked the check box of the Frelimo candidate, clearly giving a show that Nyusi and Frelimo were voted. Bulletins came in the same batch nr 06173371 06173475.A the discovery happened around 16hours via a Chairman of the Board. Coincidence or not, in all bulletins can see a small dot in the square Frelimo and its partido.O act created panic among the opposition parties gifts right away tried to communicate the media reporter for the subject. side of the Technical Secretariat for Electoral Administration, STAE, no one spoke until the close of this report. Remember that Coalane is where the council voted President of Quelimane, had as its bastion. (DIARY OF ZAMBEZIA)

News: elections first hours Mozambique


They arrested four members of Renamo in Tsangano district, Tete Province, for having prevented the entry of the ballot room with votes already voted in favor of the Frelimo party and candidate. When the delegates realized Renamo demanded explanation to the chairman but, this tried to call the police, who arrested the Renamo delegates. Meanwhile, Renamo members were taken away by police more polls with votes entered into the room. The population saw when fraud, tried to grab the ballot box and burned them. The police had to return and is currently shooting the population. At this time, the vote was interrupted. Tsangano and Changara are satellites of fraud Frelimo. In the last general elections, Guebuza won in all the tables, but the number of votes exceeded the number of voters. Ie: there was ballot box stuffing.  In Beira,Sofala Province, a citizen was found over six polls populous neighborhood of Munhava. The Head of Operations of STAE says he does not know the citizen and that it should not be there. The citizen escaped a lynching. Such citizen, who was accompanied by a woman who fled, says he was sent by the Director of STAE to transport the ballot boxes. The population requires measures to "transporter polls" .However, clandestine urns were found in the car of a police officer in Quelimane, capital of the Province of Zambezia with the registration plate PRM 00313.Interpelados the population, the police handed the polls two foreign citizens that transported in two cars containing the plate ACU enrolls 173 MC 481 and MC ADJ. (Sources: Youth Parliament and Canalmoz)