Understand the deep reasons

For the politologist João Pereira, co-author of one of the first studies on the attacks of Cabo Delgado, with the attacks of last week, the insurgents wanted, on the one hand, to demonstrate to demonstrate their military capacity, including gaining spectacularization and, on the other hand, to demonstrate that they are no longer a small group, but a group capable of confronting the State. He says the attackers have demonstrated that their war is no longer against the population and its huts alone, but against the state and public institutions. In the opinion of João Pereira, the attackers transmitted to the populations the message that, "if you want to be on the side of the State, know that you have a weakened power". For him, in the attack last week, the group took advantage of the weaknesses of logistics and discontent within the Defense and Security Forces (FDS).

 

These are logistical weaknesses aggravated by the destruction of bridges in the province, which makes the mobility of the SDS difficult. Even so, Pereira does not understand how the forces positioned at about 100 km, controlling Total's infrastructures, and those of the neighboring districts did not react to the attacks from attackers. In any case, the political science professor understands that Last week's attacks called into question the SDS's combative ability. More than that, he continued, the attacks opened a new phase in the course of the conflict that has started since October 2017.

A phase that requires the Government to start rethinking its strategies.

 The academic made it known that he is concluding an article on tactical changes by insurgent groups. For now, one of the conclusions reached is that the military capacity of the insurgency groups begins to grow when they have the financial capacity that allows them to recruit foreign forces, with extensive experience. He also says that it is necessary to study how Tanzania does not suffer attacks like those in Mozambique, even though it has a common border with the country. For Pereira, the claim made on the Islamic flag and Allah allows the group to identify with other groups that use the same speech and flag, such as Boko Haram, Islamic State and Al Shababe, to obtain support from there. Regarding an eventual intention to establish a Caliphate in the north of Cabo Delgado, the source says that the speech of the attackers is limited and, until now, you do not understand what they want, but note that the other groups also started with difficulties to make themselves understood and only later did they get support and legitimacy until they introduce sharia laws. What João Pereira has no doubt is that the State is losing control and it is necessary to start rethinking strategies.

“For example, is the conventional troop the right one for this situation?

Is the military situation the only way out or are there other packages to resolve such as poverty, marginalization and ideological conflicts? ”, He asked. He says that international aid will not be the solution itself, remembering that countries like Nigeria and Somalia had international support, but that did not solve the problem. “It is not a matter of international aid, but it is to understand the deep reasons behind it. This [international aid] can help, but international troops will not solve the problem of unemployment and the smuggling of wood and other natural resources ”, he observes. He recalled that Cabo Delgado is a province where, for a long time, the State was absent and natural resources were under the control of criminal networks. He cited the case of Tanzanians and other foreigners who were involved in smuggling rubies in Namanhumbir, in the district de Montepuez, who were expatriates, losing what, over the years, was their source. “Therefore, the reason is more profound”, he said, in reference to the various interests that were put in question with the appearance, in the last years, of the interests of the elites that, for a long time, had been absent in the province, but that now appeared to "Running" the networks that have always lived on these resources.