War is destabilisation by competing gas producers

"I am convinced that we are facing a major operation whose objective is to block the natural gas projects of Cabo Delgado," writes Jacinto Veloso in Savana Friday (5 June). "We are confronted with a mega-operation of destabilisation very probably directed by a competent and powerful hub located somewhere outside the country."

"We are dealing with a mega-operation conceived, directed, and executed from outside the country to, at least, slow the natural gas projects, because they are considered a serious commercial threat to the giant economic interests of big companies involved in identical projects in the region which are competing for the same markets." He cites as a model the United States use of Islamic fundamentalists, notably Osama bin Laden, in Afghanistan from 1979 to eventually defeat the Russians. He argues that Mozambique is confronting Islamic State, not local insurgents. To respond, "prompt external help is inevitable," he argues. The Savana article (in Portuguese) is on http://bit.ly/VelosoDestab

Veloso does not say which competing gas producers are using Islamic state. The world's 8 biggest natural gas producers (in order) are USA, Russia, Iran, Qatar, Canada, China, European Union, Norway and Saudi Arabia.

: The 83-year-old Jacinto Veloso has the standing to be taken seriously on these claims. A Portuguese air force pilot who flew his plane to Tanzania to join Frelimo in 1963, he was Security Minister (1980-83) and continued in government until 1994. He is currently a member of the government's National Defence and Security Council (CNDS). A minister during the 1982-92 war, he saw big power destabilisation first hand. He was an important back channel to apartheid South Africa and other security services, and probably retains some of those links.

And the current oil war between Saudi Arabia, Russia and the United States is real. The US promoted fracking of shale and became self-sufficient in oil and gas. There was already over-production and climate emergency concerns were curbing oil consumption. Russia refused to cut production and the Saudis hoped that by keeping up production they would bankrupt US shale producers, who are relatively expensive, and could force Russia to cut production. But Russia was also responding to US sanctions, which were partly against its oil. Prices fell from $80 to $20 in two years. Covid-19 has hit the global economy, which has made the issue worse. Gas prices have also fallen, as they are indirectly linked to oil prices.  the oil price war is also linked to hot wars. The on-going war in Libya can be seen as a proxy war between Russia, Saudi Arabia, the US and other oil producers.

Veloso explicitly dismisses the idea that this is an internal war based on "local discontents", and rejects the views of journalists and academics (which includes me) who argue this is mainly a domestic insurgency. Clearly destabilisation by the security services of one of the major gas producers, using Islamic State, is possible. But it does seem a stretch to suggest that the security services of any of the gas producers want to turn Mozambique into another Libya or Afghanistan.

 is not an either-or issue, as Veloso would have it. Veloso seems to have forgotten one of the key lessons of both of his wars - that outside intervention gains traction only though local discontents. All three of Mozambique's wars have been guerrilla wars in which the guerrillas had outside support, but that local support or at least tolerance was decisive. Frelimo moved south from Tanzania, with external support, and built on discontent with Portuguese colonial oppression - and won. Renamo with support of the US and apartheid South Africa, swept across Zambezia and Nampula because they were at least tolerated by rural communities who felt they had gained little from independence and were still poor. And in the north of Mozambique inequality has increased since then. When writing various books, people we talked to in the rural north had a common refrain - "my children may go to school, but my wallet is still empty." And they see an elite whose wallets are not empty and who appear to be growing fat. The independence war started in Chai, Macomia district, Cabo Delgado. The new war also started in Macomia district, with discontent at growing inequality meaning that local people at least tolerate the insurgents and do not support Frelimo, increasingly seen as new colonisers.

The supreme irony is that in the same place, Frelimo is fighting the new war in the same way the Portuguese fought the war 50 years, saying it is foreign backed destabilisation that must be defeated militarily. It did not work then, and is unlikely to work now. Helicopter gunships shooting at civilians will not defeat insurgents beheading civilians. Frelimo must win back the support of local people, and that requires dealing with the grievances and inequalities - local people must see some locals gains from the gas, rubies, graphite, heavy sands and other resources.

Even if Veloso is right and this is "mega" destabilisation by gas companies and security services, they will not be defeated by mercenaries and foreign soldiers if Frelimo does not resolve the internal inequalities and grievances.  jh

 Corp: insurgency local,despite international links

BOTH articles are on the Rand Corporation blog https://www.rand.org/blog.html in short form.

Editor: Joseph Hanlon