STAE PROJECTIONS GIVE VICTORY TO NYUSI

Filipe Nyusi, the presidential candidate of the ruling Frelimo Party, seems certain to win Wednesday’s election, but with a much lower share of the vote than the current President, Armando Guebuza, achieved in the 2009 election.The initial projections made by the Electoral Administration Technical Secretariat (STAE) are that Nyusi will achieve over 60 per cent of vote, almost double the vote of his nearest rival, Afonso Dhlakama, leader of the former rebel movement Renamo.The provisional results released by STAE in Maputo on Thursday morning cover only 1,454 polling stations – or 8.55 per cent of the 17,010 stations in the entire country. Although this sample is small, the projections from it are broadly in line with projections made by other media and observer groups.

The polling stations covered in the STAE announcement gave the following results:

Filipe Nyusi (Frelimo) – 272,310 (60.69 per cent)

Afonso Dhlakama (Renamo) – 141,180 (31.46 per cent)

Daviz Simango (MDM) – 35,235 (7.85 per cent).

The head of the STAE press department, Lucas Jose, gave journalists figures from five of the eleven provincial constituencies. Those results are as follows:

Cabo Delgado province (results from 198 of 1,555 polling stations)

Filipe Nyusi – 15,207 (77.9 per cent)

Afonso Dhlakama – 3,794 (19.43 per cent)

Daviz Simango – 521 (2.67 per cent)

Zambezia province (results from 236 of 2,925 polling stations)

Filipe Nyusi – 25,630 (43.49 per cent)

Afonso Dhlakama – 27,609 (46.85 per cent)

Daviz Simango – 5,688 (9.65 per cent)

Manica province (results from 460 of 1,104 polling stations)

Filipe Nyusi – 73,738 (50.93 per cent)

Afonso Dhlakama – 65,398 (45.17 per cent)

Daviz Simango – 5,661 (3.91 per cent)

Gaza province (results from 58 of 1,924 polling stations)

Filipe Nyusi – 15,387 (85.34 per cent)

Afonso Dhlakama – 1,104 (6.12 per cent)

Daviz Simango – 1,540 (8.54 per cent)

Maputo City (results from 502 of 944 polling stations)

Filipe Nyusi – 142,348 (68.62 per cent)

Afonso Dhlakama – 43,275 (20.86 per cent)

Daviz Simango – 21,825 (10.52 per cent)

As for the parliamentary election, STAE has processed far fewer of the results sheets from the polling stations. Jose could only give provisional results from a fairly small number of polling stations in four provinces. These results were:

Cabo Delgado province (results from 198 of 1,555 polling stations)

Frelimo – 13,239 (79.79 per cent)

Renamo – 2,693 (16.23 per cent)

MDM – 571 (3.44 per cent)

Zambezia province (results from 31 of 2,925 polling stations)

Frelimo – 8,318 (46.19 per cent)

Renamo – 7,895 (43.84 per cent)

MDM – 1,767 (9.81 per cent)

Manica province (results from 112 of 1,104 polling stations)

Frelimo – 15,132 (50.74 per cent)

Renamo – 12,753 (42.76 per cent)

MDM – 1,412 (4.73 per cent)

Maputo Province (results from 203 of 1,244 polling stations)

Frelimo – 42,091 (70.71 per cent)

Renamo – 9,436 (15.85 per cent)

MDM – 6,567 (11.03 per cent).

The “Mozambique Political Process Bulletin”, published by AWEPA (European Parliamentarians for Africa) and by the anti-corruption NGO CIP (Centre for Public Integrity), ventures a projection that Nyusi will end up with 60 per cent of the presidential vote, Dhlakama with 32 per cent and Simango with eight per cent.As for the parliamentary elections, the Bulletin predicts that Frelimo will win 57 per cent of the vote, Renamo 30 per cent and the MDM 12 per cent. The other one per cent is scattered around the 27 minor parties contesting the elections. On the basis of this forecast, the eleven provincial constituencies will between give Frelimo 142 seats in the country’s parliament, the Assembly of the Republic, Renamo 75 and the MDM 31.This only adds up to 148 seats, because the remaining two parliamentary seats are allocated to the constituencies in the Mozambican diaspora. No results from polling stations in the diaspora have yet reached AIM. 

On past performance it seems likely that both these seats will go to Frelimo.These projections are a significant setback for Frelimo. In 2009, Guebuza and Frelimo won around 75 per cent of the vote, and Frelimo had 191 deputies in the 250 member parliament. With a majority of well over two thirds, Frelimo could have changed the constitution on its own, if it so desired. This time the Frelimo majority seems likely to fall well short of two thirds.As for Renamo, it has made a remarkable recovery. Dhlakama’s percentage of the vote seems set to double compared with the 2009 figure, while the Renamo parliamentary group will be boosted from the current 51 to around 75. This is despite Dhlakama’s decision to return to war last year in order to force changes in the electoral legislation. Any belief that Renamo’s murderous behavior would cost it votes has proved illusory.The MDM will certainly be disappointed that it failed to build on its successes in the 2013 municipal elections. Those successes now seem due to the fact that Renamo boycotted the municipal polls, and so all opposition votes went to the MDM. With Renamo back in the picture, many people who made their political home briefly with the MDM have drifted back to Dhlakama.In the current parliament the MDM only holds eight seats, largely because it was only able to stand in four constituencies in 2009. Standing in all constituencies this time, the MDM is likely to see the number of its parliamentarians rise to over 30.