A mantle of wealth

"This is one of the paradoxes that is highlighted in the book" which will be released on June 2, "O Cabo do Medo", declared or author, in an interview with Lusa. Nuno Rogeiro considers that, in the province of Cabo Delgado (northern Mozambique) - the scene of 'jihadist' attacks associated with the Islamic State -, a Front for the Liberation of Mozambique (Frelimo) "is currently holding a hot potato in its hands very similar to the one that the Portuguese administration had between [19] 61 and 74 ".

A province of Cabo Delgado, where natural gas megaprojects are planned, has been the scene of several terrorist attacks, which are being claimed by the Islamic State since June 2019. The attacks have already caused more than half a thousand deaths and 162 thousand displaced people. .Next to Guinea-Bissau, it was in Cabo Delgado that Portugal faced more resistance during a colonial war, with bases not controlled by Frelimo and logistical support from neighboring Tanzania. Between Palma, where gas exploration is planned, and Pemba, the provincial capital, groups of Islamic fighters face opposing locals and beheads, in a scenario of loss of central power that only begins in April with more means ground.  "How things come down to more or less the same: which side are the people on?", Comments Nuno Rogeiro, noting that "he does not win a subversive war against the people".

In the colonial war, "Frelimo, in a way, won politically because it managed to win over part of the minds of Mozambicans", (photo on the right colonial army in the woods of C.Delgado 1970) a victory that it soon alienated with the creation of re-education camps and a repression over opponents that led to a civil war. Today, despite Maputo having "enough security instruments, technical instruments and equipment" to deal with Islamic fighters in the country's northernmost province, Frelimo "gives the impression that it really forgot everything it had learned during the guerrilla war "e" is in a situation today where he does not seem to understand the guerrilla's mind ".

"One of the major problems for the security forces at the moment is to distinguish who is who", to reduce the risks of civilian casualties, warned Nuno Rogeiro, considering that Mozambique "must be more sophisticated, it must have more means, more equipment and be more intelligent in the way of dealing with this crisis ",(photo on the left guerrillas that liberated the country from colonialism).

"The Mozambican army and the Mozambican police were transformed into forces of public order" and showed that "they were not able to fight a guerrilla war", considered the analyst. "Within Frelimo there is an awareness that we will not win only with weapons not only because these weapons do not exist, but also because it is impossible" to win without the support of the population, warned the analyst. In his book, edited by Don Quixote, Nuno Rogeiro explains the birth of what he considers to be the Islamic State Province of Central Africa (EIPAC), which takes advantage of popular discontent to try to control the province. The objective of the Islamic State is to make "Cabo Delgado an independent state of Mozambique", taking advantage of the chronic abandonment of the territory by Maputo. "Daesh is a hunter of new talents and he found them in Mozambique", a country that they consider to be the most favorable to the installation of a caliphate in East Africa. 

 "They tried to take Pemba and failed", but "they think they can live for a few years in that central area between Quissanga to Palma", he maintained, adding: "It is one of their dreams, to be able to live in a situation of chaos and impose their law outside large urban centers ". This is "a conflict that Mozambique was not expecting, but there are elements of hope", he said, pointing out the decision of the natural gas exploration companies to remain in place. The groups are born out of local discontent, but are guided and formed from bases of Islamic extremism in the neighboring Democratic Republic of Congo, which "turns the Mozambique problem into a regional problem".

The "natural gas liquefaction industry makes this fight more comfortable for Mozambique because it gives visibility" and ensures support channels, he explained. On the other hand, if "Cabo Delgado was an area without any strategic interest, it might not have Daesh's attention". But, to combat this phenomenon, it is necessary to attack the root of the discontent, increasing the weight of the State in the area and treating the population with justice, ensuring the "distribution of income that will come from natural gas", he warned. "Cabo Delgado is the poorest province, but the one with the most wealth", he stressed.