Tuesday, April 12, 2016

Debts? It's going to pay!

The government of President Armando Emilio Guebuza violated the Constitution when he endorsed the debt contracted by the Mozambican company Tuna (EMATUM), along with a Swiss and other Russian bank. In the week ending Executive Philip Nyusi, which has not yet ruled on the debt than its predecessor contracted violation of the budget law of 2013, officially took the loss ratifying the agreement reversal of commercial debt securities in sovereign debt of the state. Also violate Article 179 of the "Mother Law" borrowing by state-owned Proindicus SA. "It is noted that the government, without proper authorization, issued sureties and guarantees" sentenced the Administrative Court (TA), but the Attorney General's Office (PGR) does not process those responsible and the Constitutional Council remains silent.
According to the point p) of Article 179 of the Constitution responsible to Parliament "authorize the Government, defining the general conditions, the contract or grant loans, to perform other credit operations for period longer than one financial year and to establish the upper limit for guarantees granted by the State ", as in the case of loans EMATUM and Proindicus.
The court that oversees government accounts, in its opinion on the General State Account (CGE) 2013, found that the "CGE 2013 does not contain any information of sureties and guarantees granted by the State, the limit was set at 183.5 million meticais (just over 5.5 million US dollars at the time of exchange) for guarantees and state guarantees, by Article 11 of Law No. 1/2013, of 7 January, approving the state budget of 2013".
Moreover, "Securing the Budget Law, as mentioned above, the threshold value for the issuance of guarantees and sureties, by the Government at 183.5 million meticais (just over 6.5 million US dollars at the exchange rate of the time) , it is observed that the government, without proper authorization, issued sureties and guarantees totaling 28,346,620,000 meticais ", which correspond to the sum of the two loans contracted by EMATUM (a 500 million Credit Suisse, Switzerland and another 350 million US dollars to request Vnesh Torg Bank of Russia).
Both loans exceed the limit fixed by the Budget Law of 2013 but no Guebuza Executive submitted them for consideration and approval of the National Assembly (RA), where the ruling party counter even had the necessary votes to approve .
Yet in 2013 the Executive Armando Guebuza nodded another state company, Proindicus SA, contracted other loans that exceeded by about a hundred times the limit set by Law No. 1/2013, totaling at least 622 million US dollars, according with the Wall Street Journal, the loans granted by banks Credit Suisse and Bank Vnesh Torg, the same who lent money to EMATUM.
Despite the negative opinion of the TA, the guarantees and illegal guarantees were not the only irregularities in the 2013 General State Account, the majority bench Frelimo party in parliament approved it without challenge.
The Attorney General's Office in no time announced it was investigating the illegal issuance of guarantees and guarantees by the Government. However, in December 2015, the Frelimo bench in RA invoked an alleged investigation of the ongoing RMP spreads a parliamentary commission of inquiry to EMATUM requested by Renamo.
Although the Constitution of the Republic of Mozambique set the Constitutional Council as a body responsible for administering justice in matters of legal and constitutional nature the institution led by Hermenegildo Gamito Maria Cepeda remains silent concerning the violation of the Law "Mother."
In addition to the illegal issuance of sureties and guarantees, which violates the constitution, the PGR should also investigate how these were spent 1.47 billion US dollars not entered or passed in the Single Treasury Account that is where They should be channeled all public funds, collected at home or abroad.
"If you have a small debt, you have a problem, but if the debt is large, the lender is having a problem"
After the session of last week's Council of Ministers Executive Nyusi made public who had taken over as sovereign debt of all Mozambicans all commercial debt contracted by the Mozambican company Tuna, after renegotiating with investors late payments. In September the Government had already paid the first installment, amounting to 105 million US dollars in treasury funds.
"By taking the reversal of the debt, the repayment period goes from five to seven years, two years, instead of payment of 200 million US dollars a year goes to pay 76 million a year, but in two semi-annual tranches, amounting to 38 million, "said Mouzinho Saide the spokesman of the Council of Ministers, which however did not specify which of advantageous business just had that Mozambique defer payment of debts.
Was to reveal that interest rates were higher, they increased from 6.305% to 10.5%, which means that the final amount to be paid will be higher than initially assumed. Moreover, with this renegotiation, Philip Nyusi Government assumed that it was foreseeable, the state is unable to honor its commitments to creditors.
Professor Antonio Francisco economy explained to @Verdade that "the kind of renegotiation of the debt EMATUM requested by the Mozambican government corresponds to what in financial jargon is called" haircut "(haircut, a literal translation); ie discount or some kind of forgiveness that involves some loss of principal and / or interest, depending on the terms of the debt renegotiation. By indicating the information disclosed on this renegotiation creditors agreed to reschedule or postpone repayment of debt, first of all because they realized that the alternative was simply declare bankruptcy and do not receive anything. Therefore, the most likely had no alternative. "
"It is often said: if you have a small debt, you have a problem; but if the debt is large, the lender is having a problem. If the debtor declares that it is unable to pay the debt, what to do? Thus, if the creditors of EMATUM agreed to renegotiate the debt, they accept losing part of the value of the bonds they hold. But the debtor side, means you can benefit from a reduction of the interest charges, or even debt reduction. As we see, the government is doing it all for passing the burden on taxpayers, but as in the past, the two previous bankruptcies, the most likely try to gain time for that eventually the debt is forgotten, "he added economist interviewed by @Verdade.
The agency credit rating Standard & Poor's (S & P), which on 15 March had dropped the Mozambique rating to CC / C (placing our country as a debtor with totally vulnerable capacity for financial business compliance and with high probability of default) downgraded this rating earlier this month for the SD category. "The SD rating means that Mozambique has a" selective default "; ie S & P believes that Mozambique can not pay all or much of their debt, "says economics professor.
"The IMF is a major contributor to the financial frenzy in which Mozambique embarked"
However António Francisco, who is also a researcher and coordinator of the Research Group on Poverty and Social Protection at the Institute of Social and Economic Studies (IESE), clarifies that "the fact that Mozambique is at greater risk limit, does not make it bad for all. Why is the level of higher risk also allows greater profitability. Therefore, some companies may yield much, which is why the lenders will do everything not to lose all that lent ".
Asked by @Verdade whether the measures announced by the Government will help to overcome the crisis and the rating to rise the teacher is slightly optimistic. "Who can believe the government measures as an option to invert a true financial somersault? Much less now, when just be aware that in addition to 850 million dollars EMATUM, there is still a debt Proindicus, worth over 622 million. Is this last surprise? Do not know. Given this, what I say is relevant we have to wait calmly and see if the bill is here, "he says.

Resultado de imagem para antonio francisco maputo"As for out of the crisis, I can say is that my expectation, last year, a new quasi-bankruptcy happen by 2020, it begins to show me that I was being too optimistic. However, the classification of "selective default" by S & P is a clear indication of near-bankruptcy. I'm curious to know how will be the assessment of the IMF in the next two or three months, "the economist who compares the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to" holy house of mercy "of the Mozambican State. "Contrary to what my colleague John Mosca said in an article entitled" Futseka IMF ", once again the Mozambican state will be the first to say:" It is the IMF! ". And it's good to stay. The IMF is a major contributor to the financial frenzy in which Mozambique embarked and the somersault that is happening, "concludes António Francisco.

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