Is Celso Correia building PoEs?

Businessman Celso Correia has become one of the closest confidants of President Filipe Nyusi. In the first Nyusi administration he was Minister of Land, Environment and Rural Development. In the current administration he heads a super ministry, Agriculture and Rural Development. He has built a reputation as someone who gets things done, hires good people, and gains staff loyalty and respect. He took with him from his old to his new ministry the National Sustainable Development Fund (FNDS) and the World Bank funded Sustenta project, and this year he has been given control the Integrated Development Agency for the North (ADIN) as well as the Zambéze Development Agency. This gives him control of more than $2.8 bn.

As environment minister, Correia was given credit for reducing the illegal trade in hardwood, as well as other environmental controls. And he won praise for leading the government's response to the cyclones last year.He then ran the Frelimo 2019 election campaign. He was successful -Nuysi won in every district. But there was no attempt to conceal widespread fraud, which was heavily criticised by civil society and electoral observers. He ran the election campaign not from party headquarters but from his own offices on Av Julius Nyerere in Maputo and set up his own offices in each province. In the election he showed his mix of managerial and political skills. Frelimo thought it might lose and its survival was at stake, so he was able to convince the various party factions not to block him, and he involved party and election officials in all provinces.

Thus he showed precisely the skills needed to run a PoE.Clearly, there are mixed views about Correia. CDD (Centre for Democracy and Development) and its executive director, Prof. Adriano Nuvunga, have been running a strong campaign against Correia, in which he alleges that Correia treats project funds as a "saco azul" -money that does not need to be accounted for. https://cddmoz.org/?s=correiaThe 30 September issue of CDD's Política Moçambicana accuses Correia of spending $9 mn of FNDS money for 2158 motorcycles and other equipment for agricultural extensionists. Equipment was bought from Frelimo linked companies. This can be read two ways. Is it further government corruption, as CCD alleges? Or is it following the PoE model? For two decades the World Bank blocked support for government extensionists on the neoliberal grounds that agricultural support should be private, not government. Increasing the support for extensionists is one of the most important thing that must be done to support small farmers. So this could be seen as a classic PoEdeal -the World Bank finally agrees to a change in policy to allow government support, more than 2000 extensionists receive essential transport so the government is helping farmers, and Frelimo business people get the contracts. Not precise good governance practices, but the first agriculture minister to promote extension. The war in Cabo Delgado is fuelled by young people fed up with growing poverty and feeling they do not benefit from rubies, gas and other resources. Seeing no future, some join the insurgents.

ADIN is budgeted at $764 mn and is clearly seen as the way to get money to young people -to try to keep them away from the insurgents. The biggest problem is a group of powerful Cabo Delgado Frelimo oligarchs, with roots in the independence war and still hugely influential at the top of Frelimo. They expect to control and take a share of everything that comes to the province. Is ADIN intended to be a PoE in which Correia uses his political skills to get buy-in from the local big men? As with the election, can Correia convince them that their political and economic survival depends on a developmental as well as a military intervention to end the war? The deal would be that local young people would be supported. In exchange, the oligarchs and their clients will get a share and agree not to interfere with the operation of ADIN. TVM as part of giving air time to ministers did a 2 hour interview on 30 September, with a short discussion of ADIN only toward the end (at about 90 minutes in). Correia stressed "transparency". Is his way of dealing with the Frelimo big men simply to ensure that, like the extensionists' motorcycles, the share for Frelimo is public? https://bit.ly/Correia-TVM/Having used Correia to ensure he won the 2019 election, is Nyusi now using him to create a "pocketof effectiveness" to woo young people away from Cabo Delgado insurgents? Or is it just more corruption with a better looking label?